The San Diego Padres (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 65-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 53-64 ATS.
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 42 away games (+23.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+20.40 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 away games (+16.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+14.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.55 Units / 57% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games (+15.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+10.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 52 of their last 94 games (+14.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 44 away games (+4.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 61 away games (+1.65 Units / 2% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+14.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+0.80 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 55-64 against the Run Line (-11.95 Units / -8.11% ROI).
- 65-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -3.62% ROI
- 55-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.35 Units / -8.74% ROI
- 61-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 53-64 against the Run Line (-21.3 Units / -13.55% ROI).
- 52-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.25 Units / -12.3% ROI
- 50-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -17 Units / -13.08% ROI
- 61-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.5 Units / 5.07% ROI
Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (5/33) against Mike Clevinger this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 19% (10/52) against Mike Clevinger this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Mike Clevinger has walked 5 of 30 left-handed batters (17%) this month (3 games) — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — seventh Percentile.
Mike Clevinger has not allowed a walk in his last 69 PAs against a RHH dating back to July 12nd — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 147.
Pablo Lopez: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 40% (132/331) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 42% (86/206) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (165/417) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (161/429) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.