The San Diego Padres (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.

This season, the Padres are 81-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 62-82 ATS.

Padres vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 4-3, 3.51 ERA
• Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 11-10, 3.49 ERA

Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 35 games (+36.40 Units / 104% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+15.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+13.30 Units / 65% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+12.35 Units / 28% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games at home (+24.70 Units / 176% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.90 Units / 51% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+12.10 Units / 55% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+12.10 Units / 55% ROI)
• Luis Urias has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 67 games (+13.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 68 games (+13.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+10.30 Units / 36% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games at home (+17.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games at home (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 59 games at home (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 59 games at home (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 72-73 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 0.64% ROI).

• 81-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 0.87% ROI
• 79-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.05 Units / 5.71% ROI
• 64-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.8 Units / -14.8% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 62-82 against the Run Line (-23.85 Units / -13.29% ROI).

• 73-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -8.87% ROI
• 64-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -9.81% ROI
• 73-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 1.71% ROI

Mariners vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 50% of the time (318/637) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 56% of the time (358/637) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 50% of the time (472/952) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .234 (44 Total Bases / 188 ABs) on fastballs away since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: .376 — 98th Percentile.

Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

George Kirby has walked 8 of 372 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.

George Kirby has walked 6 of 261 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

George Kirby has walked 22 of 754 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

George Kirby has walked 21 of 689 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

  
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