The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Padres are 51-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-48 ATS.

Padres vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 7-6, 3.43 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 8-5, 3.60 ERA

Padres vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Padres vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 away games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+8.80 Units / 45% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+4.25 Units / 45% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games at home (+14.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 57 of their last 97 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+10.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 50-51 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.2% ROI).

• 51-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -6.56% ROI
• 53-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.54% ROI
• 47-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -10.44% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 49-48 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 3.87% ROI).

• 59-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.77 Units / 10.81% ROI
• 47-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -1.54% ROI
• 44-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.55 Units / -7.12% ROI

Guardians vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on non-fastballs since the 2022 season (282 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 87.1

Michael King has a strikeout rate of 33% (60 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.

Michael King has struck out 32% (73/226) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.

Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.3 MPH since the 2022 season (606 balls in play) — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 88.9

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .059 (1-for-17) against Ben Lively when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .229 — 96th Percentile.

Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .630 (92 Total Bases / 146 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: .430 — second Percentile.

Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .630 (92 Total Bases / 146 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .434 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 8% (4/48) against Ben Lively this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

  
Read Full Article