The San Diego Padres (+135) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-160) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 92-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 83-77 ATS.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 4-7, 5.23 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez 3-4, 5.48 ERA
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 50 games (+27.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+14.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 49 games (+11.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 40 games (+37.40 Units / 94% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+20.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+13.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+12.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 83 games (+20.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 79 away games (+16.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 away games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 67% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 104 games (+32.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 103 games (+18.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 95 games (+13.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+8.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 82-78 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 3.6% ROI).
- 92-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 3.91% ROI
- 82-74 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 0.6% ROI
- 74-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -17 Units / -9.59% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 83-77 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -0.43% ROI).
- 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 4.09% ROI
- 91-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +20.85 Units / 11.76% ROI
- 63-91 when betting on the total runs Under for -36.85 Units / -21.08% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 8% (15/185) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .426 (26-for-61) against Randy Vasquez’s inside fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 35% (53/153) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OPS of 1.001 (185 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .720 — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an OPS of 1.314 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .672 — second Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .825 (33 Total Bases / 40 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — second Percentile.
The average home run distance against Eduardo Rodriguez in the 2023 season was 381.5 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an OBP of .489 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — second Percentile.