The San Diego Padres (-155) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) on Saturday, April 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Padres are 10-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 14-7 ATS.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 66.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 23 games (+19.80 Units / 40% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+11.05 Units / 50% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 60% ROI)
• Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.35 Units / 52% ROI)
• Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 39% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.30 Units / 69% ROI)
• Pavin Smith has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+8.00 Units / 133% ROI)
• Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 58% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 98% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 10-12 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -13.97% ROI).

• 10-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -20.26% ROI
• 10-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -8.79% ROI
• 11-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.21% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 14-7 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 20.83% ROI).

• 12-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 32.5% ROI
• 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.2 Units / 9.42% ROI
• 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -16.99% ROI

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 95th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has walked 4 of 214 batters (2%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,520/3,517) vs left-handed batters since the 2020 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (57/178) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Merrill Kelly has walked 8 of 40 right-handed batters (20%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of just 59% (110/185) against right-handed batters this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has walked 12 of 86 batters (14%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 10th Percentile.

  
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