The San Diego Padres (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Padres are 22-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 21-19 ATS.

Padres vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 1-5, 5.50 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 3-1, 3.55 ERA

Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 68.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+24.50 Units / 153% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+14.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.55 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.50 Units / 43% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+16.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.70 Units / 77% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+13.55 Units / 40% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.15 Units / 42% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+11.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 away games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.85 Units / 20% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 26 games (+20.75 Units / 71% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+6.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 23-23 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 2.67% ROI).

• 22-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -13.63% ROI
• 24-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 2.38% ROI
• 21-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -10.61% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 21-19 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 6.62% ROI).

• 26-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 5.75% ROI
• 12-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.2 Units / -37.07% ROI
• 26-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.9 Units / 29.05% ROI

Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of 1.249 (69 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .732 — 0 Percentile.

Matt Waldron has allowed a slugging percentage of .770 (47 Total Bases / 61 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .413 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 28% (37/130) against Matt Waldron on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 47% — third Percentile.

Matt Waldron has allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (42 Total Bases / 74 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .388 — second Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 83.2 MPH (87 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.0 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.2 MPH this season (87 balls in play) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Right-handed batters are hitting just .126 (16-for-127) against Max Fried this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .029 (1-for-34) against Max Fried — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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