Padres-Giants prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, June 19

The two hottest teams in the NL West collide for a big three-game set by the Bay as the San Diego Padres head north to face off against the San Francisco Giants. First pitch of Monday's series opener at Oracle Park is set for 9:45 p.m. ET. Righty Michael Wacha (7-2, 2.89 ERA) will look to keep his 12.2-inning scoreless streak going for the Padres, while the Giants use reliever Ryan Walker (2-0, 1.23) as an opener.

This one is nearly a pick 'em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Padres at -115 and the Giants at -105. The run total is set at 9.

Padres

Out: RP Tom Cosgrove (hamstring), SP Seth Lugo (calf), RP Robert Suarez (elbow), RP Drew Pomeranz (elbow), 3B Eguy Rosario (ankle), C Luis Campusano (thumb)

Giants

Out: INF Wilmer Flores (foot), RP John Brebbia (lat), OF Mitch Haniger (forearm), OF Luis Gonzalez (back), OF Heliot Ramos (oblique), SP/RP Ross Stripling (back)

Michael Wacha vs. Ryan Walker

While San Diego's starrier names (Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove) struggled out of the gate, Wacha has been a life-saver for the Padres rotation, going six or more innings in all but one start since the beginning of May while posting a microscopic 0.91 ERA over that span. The righty ranks in the 77th percentile in average exit velocity and in the 83rd in hard-hit rate, relying mostly a fastball-changeup combination that's kept hitters off balance all year. Hitters have posted batting averages below .200 against both offerings, while the change has a robust 36.1% whiff rate.

Walker has been yet another great find for an overachieving Giants bullpen, being scored on just twice across 11 appearances so far this season. He went three innings against the Chicago Cubs earlier this month, so he could give San Francisco some length, but the more likely scenario is that he pitches the first one or two frames before giving way to a bulk man like Jakob Junis.

These are two of the hottest offenses in baseball right now. San Francisco ranks fourth in the league in wRC+ in the month of June – having scored 65 runs over their last seven games – while the Padres are sixth. All due respect to Wacha, I think his impressive scoreless streak ends fairly early tonight, while a San Diego team that's scored five or more runs in nine of their last 14 games does most of the heavy lifting to get us past this over.

Pick: Over 9

While I think the Giants will get to Wacha for at least two or three runs, I still have far more faith in the red-hot righty than I do in the combination of Walker and whoever follows him, whether that's Junis (4.12 ERA) or someone else. At almost even odds, I'll take the better starter and the lineup with the most star power.

Pick: Padres

  
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