Packers vs. Eagles Prediction, Picks & Odds, 9-6: Week 1

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles begin their seasons at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil in the first Friday game on the NFL's opening weekend since 1970.

My Packers vs. Eagles prediction, part of our Week 1 NFL predictions, analyzes this matchup of two playoff teams from a year ago. It's one of four such matchups between playoff teams on the Week 1 slate.

Green Bay was the youngest team to win a playoff game since the 1970 merger with its 48-32 Wild Card win over the Dallas Cowboys, while Philadelphia became just the third team in NFL history to start 10-1 or better but fail to make the Divisional Round.

Best Packers vs. Eagles picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Packers ML (+118 via FanDuel) vs. Eagles ???
• Player prop: Saquon Bar kley Under 65.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ????

Packers vs. Eagles prediction: Week 1

It may have gone largely unnoticed, but Love was one of the league's best quarterbacks in the second half of last year. From Week 11 through the Wild Card playoffs,  Love had a 79 Total QBR (ranked first among all quarterbacks), a 21-1 TD-INT ratio (2nd-best), and completed 71% of his passes (2nd-highest).

The Packers won seven of nine games in that stretch. And if the Eagles choose to play man coverage, Love should be at his best, as his 24-1 TD-INT ratio was the best versus man coverage of all quarterbacks who played a minimum of 10 games.

While Green Bay was a team on the rise at the end of last year, Philadelphia was a sitting duck entering the playoffs. The Eagles' offense through the first 11 games averaged 27.4 points per game, had an 18-10 TD-INT ratio, ave raged 7.5 yards per attempt, and had a 13% turnover rate per drive.

However, over the final six games, those numbers plummeted to 18.2 points per game, a 6-6 TD-INT ratio, 6.7 yards per attempt, and a 19% turnover rate per drive, all ranking in the bottom 10 in the NFL. 

The point spread on this matchup at one point earlier in the week rose from Packers +1.5 to +3. However, with the spread at +2.5 or lower across our best sports betting sites, I would forego the spread and back the Packers on the moneyline.

I would advise others to play Green Bay's spread if they can get +3 or better at their preferred shops later in the week. And those who want to get creative can back Green Bay's alternate spread of +3.5, but the cheapest price anywhere for that is at FanDuel's -146 odds.

A $10 winning wager for Green Bay to win outright would return $11.80 in profits.

Best odds: +118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.87%

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Packers vs. Eagles player prop

What the Eagles offense will look like will be somewhat of a mystery entering this season with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and new running back Barkley.

Barkley was a workhorse by necessity in his time with the New York Giants, as he accounted for 39% of the team's touches and 32% of the scrimmage touchdowns over the previous two seasons.

However, Barkley does not have to be as much of a focal point with two dynamic wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, on the perimeter. In addition, Philadelphia lost center Jason Kelce to retirement, which should not be understated. Kelce was First Team All-Pro in six of the last seven seasons, and his 75% Run Block Win Rate in 2023 ranked first among all centers.

This is a four-star play, as Barkley will also lose some red zone carries to signal-caller Jalen Hurts, as Hurts has 10-p lus rushing touchdowns over the last three seasons (including a career-high 15 last year). 

This line was as high as O/U 72.5 earlier in the week, but there is still value with Caesars' line, as competing shops like FanDuel are down as low as 61.5 while still juicing the Over to -113. A $10 winning wager pays out $18.70.

Our C Jackson Cowart has a more hopeful view of Barkley in his Packers vs. Eagles player props for Friday.

Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Packers vs. Eagles odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Packers vs. Eagles game info

• When: Friday, Sept. 6
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Corinthians Arena, Sao Paulo, Brazil
• How to watch: Peacock
• Weather: 71 degrees, 21% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph SE
• Favorite: Eagles (-130 via DraftKings)

NFL betting odds pages

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• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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