One of the NFL's great rivalries adds another chapter Sunday when the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys face off as part of NFL Wild Card Weekend, and our Packers vs. Cowboys prediction based on the best NFL odds expect a strong outing from Dak Prescott and Co.
There are no shortage of compelling storylines this year in NFL Wild Card Weekend. That said, it's hard to beat the pageantry of this storied matchup between the Green Bay Packers (9-8) and Dallas Cowboys (12-5), who renew their epic rivalry on Sunday in their first playoff meeting in seven years.
The last time these teams faced off in the postseason, Dak Prescott and Co. lost by a field goal in his playoff debut. The Cowboys QB enters Sunday as a sizable favorite this time around, hoping to preserve his team's perfect 8-0 record at home (6-2 ATS) against a Packers team that has never lost at AT&T Stadium.
As part of our NFL Predictions for Wild Card Weekend and to accompany our Packers vs. Cowboys NFL player props, here is our best Packers vs. Cowboys prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Packers vs. Cowboys prediction for Wild Card Weekend
Who else, right? Lamb has been a touchdown-scoring machine for the Cowboys over the back half of the season, and I'd be stunned if he doesn't reach paydirt in his team's most important game to date.
Lamb's credentials are common knowledge at this point, but they're worth repeating: the fourth-year star lead the league in receptions (135) on a ridiculous 181 targets, and his 14 total touchdowns are the most by any receiver in 2023. He scored in 11 of 17 games thus far, including seven of eight home games, and he reached the end zone at l east once in nine consecutive weeks entering Wild Card Weekend.
In addition to all of that, this is a compelling matchup for Lamb against a Green Bay secondary that has been burned by star wideouts this year and is even lighter on star power than usual entering this weekend.
Former All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander, who was already in the midst of a career-worst campaign, sprained his ankle on Wednesday and is uncertain to play Sunday. That would thrust the likes of Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, and Corey Ballentine – the Packers' three most-used corners on the year – into an even more unenviable spot trying to coral arguably the best receiver in football.
Lamb is dealing as short as -182 to score across our best sports betting sites, so we're getting a relative discount betting this at bet365. I have confidence in the Cowboys' offense putting up points on Sunday (see below), and I' m expecting Lamb to play a key role in that as he has all season.
This is one of the toughest games of the weekend to handicap against the spread or full-game total, and it has everything to do with the uncertainty surrounding Green Bay's offense.
Love will be making his first playoff start on Sunday, which has been a harbinger of bad results over the last two decades, and he faces a daunting task against this talented Dallas defense. That said, the Packers QB has handled pressure – literal and figurative – particularly well this season and has been PFF's top-graded passer overall since Week 12.
Instead of trying to make sense of how he'll perform on Sunday, I'm avoiding that side of the ball entirely and focusing strictly on the Cowboys offense, which has been one of the most consistent units in football this season – especially at home.
Entering Wild Card Weekend, Dalla s ranks ninth in offensive DVOA and third in offensive EPA/play, and the team leads the league in points per game (29.9) and overall success rate (50.3%). Much of the credit belongs to QB Dak Prescott, who was briefly trading as the NFL MVP favorite amid the most-prolific season of his already impressive career.
As impressive as those stats are, the Cowboys' offense has been historically good at home. In eight games at AT&T Stadium, Dallas is averaging a ridiculous 37.4 points with 425.8 yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play, converting on 53.2% of their third downs and nearly 60% of their red-zone trips.
It shouldn't come as a surprise that this team has cashed its team total in seven of eight home games and scored at least 38 points in five of them. And I don't see that changing Sunday against this much-maligned Packers defense.
Green Bay defensive coordinator Joe Barry has earned the deris ion of Packers fans all season long, even as his unit ranks 10th in points allowed per game (20.6 PPG). That doesn't tell the whole story, as this group ranks 25th in opponent success rate (38.7%) and 24th in EPA/play allowed (-0.01) while allowing the eighth-highest third-down conversion rate (41.1%).
The Packers' pass defense is of particular concern ahead of Sunday's matchup. Alexander has been a shell of himself in 2023, and the midseason trade of Rasul Douglas has forced the likes of Nixon (808 snaps), Valentine (694), and Ballentine (488) into significant roles in pass coverage.
As I detailed above, I'm mighty skeptical of that group containing Lamb, who has torched iffy secondaries all season long en route to an NFL-high 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 12 receiving touchdowns. He isn't the only one, as tight end Jake Ferguson (761 yards) and receivers Brandin Cooks (657 yards) and Michael Gallup (418) have been uber-efficient in secondary roles for this stacked offense.
I was a little more compelled by this bet earlier in the week, when the Cowboys' team total was a tick lower at the same odds. The lowest total you can get at reasonable odds is 29.5, but I don't mind laying an extra point to get this +105 price at BetRivers on a total that's trading as short as -115 across our best sports betting sites.
Either way, I think the Cowboys clear this mark with relative ease, as they've done in nearly every home game this season. You can also bet the Cowboys Over 3.5 touchdowns (-115 via DraftKings), though I'd rather target plus-money odds on this team total wager for what could be an explosive day for Prescott and Co.
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Packers vs. Cowboys best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 | Over 29.5 | Over 28.5 | Over 29.5 | Over 30.5 |
| -110 | -118 | -135 | -115 | -115 |
As you can see above, the vast majority of our best sports betting apps are either dealing the Cowboys' team total below 30 with inflated odds or at 30.5 with standard -110 or -115 odds.
That's why we'd recommend placing this wager at BetRivers, where you can bet Over 30.5 at +105 odds or even drop down to 28.5 points at -125. There isn't a ton of added value in doing that without ducking below the key number of 28, which would cost you -143 to bet the Over on 27.5.
One way to score some extra value on this prop? See which of our best sportsbook promos are offering the best bonuses for this game, which could enhance the value of this plus-money wager at BetRivers or make some of these prices at other books a little more palatable.
Packers vs. Cowboys odds
Packers vs. Cowboy s odds analysis
This team total has been trading between 27.5 and 30.5 across our best sports betting apps since this game first opened, though the odds for betting the Over on the lower range is a little too pricey for our taste. That's why we're more interested in rolling the dice on the high end with +105 odds at BetRivers.
As for the side, the Cowboys opened as 7-point favorites but have been bet as high as -7.5 across our best live betting sites before settling back at -7 as of Thursday. Keep an eye on this line as the week progresses, especially if you're hoping to get the best value on the road 'dogs.
Sunday's total opened as low as 49 but has climbed to 50.5 across our best sportsbooks ahead of NFL Wild Card Weekend. I don't mind a play on the full-game Over, but with Love making his playoff debut, I'd rather directly target the Cowboys to continue their torrid scoring pace at home.
Packers vs. Cowboys game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 14 at 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
Packers-Cowboys prediction made Tuesday at 3:45 p.m. ET.
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