If I told you back in August that the Packers vs Bills would be a 10.5 spread, you would think I was insane. As we sit here 8 weeks into the NFL season, the Packers are at risk of missing the playoffs entirely. The Bills have lived up to all the lofty expectations and Josh Allen is sitting as MVP front runner at the moment. Allen Lazard will be out for Green Bay and Buffalo will be without OT Spencer Brown.
Check out our full game analysis here.
Sammy Watkins Over 38.5 Receiving Yards -115
Yes, I'm playing the Buffalo return angle. Watkins started his career as a first-round pick to the Buffalo Bills before being dealt in 2017 to the Los Angeles Rams. Green Bay Assistant Coach Jason Vrable was showing Sammy Watkins clips this week in practice, particularly of his game winning TD vs Minnesota this season to hype him up for this game. With Allen Lazard out, Watkins will be in for a big role. His receptions line is heavily juiced in favor of over 3.5 even though he's yet to hit that mark all season. Watkins will draw CB Kaiir Elam in coverage who's allowing at 77% reception rate and 10 yards per reception. While I do think Watkins hits his 4-reception mark, the juice is just too much for me at -156. His aDOT in weeks 2+7 (his best of 3 games this year) averaged out to 18.5. 1U from me.