Top-seeded San Francisco will host the Green Bay Packers in a faceoff between two teams with very different preseason expectations, and we offer our top Packers vs. 49ers player props based on the best NFL odds.
The Green Bay Packers made NFL history during Wild Card Weekend by becoming the first No. 7 seed to win a playoff game with a stunning upset over the Cowboys in Dallas. Now they face an even more challenging task in the NFC Divisional Round against the San Francisco 49ers.
Dallas was as short as a -370 moneyline favorite in the wild-card round, while the 49ers are massive -480 favorites on the ML at BetRivers for this showdown.
Green Bay will need its star players to continue to perform if it hopes to advance to the NFC Championship Game, but standing in its way is arguably the most talented team in the entire NFL.
What will happen when Davi d meets Goliath?
To accompany our Jordan Love player props and Brock Purdy player props, along with our NFL Divisional Round predictions, here are our best Packers vs. 49ers NFL player props for the Divisional Round (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Packers vs. 49ers NFL player props: Divisional Round
We're offering a double dose of Aaron Jones fades, so let's get started with his rushing attempts.
Jones racked up 21 carries on Wild Card Weekend, but that was in a blowout, during which Jordan Love threw the ball only 21 times. Saturday's game against the 49ers profiles as a much different affair, and the data backs that up.
Across five projection models, Jones' average rushing attempts projection is 14.31. When we run that number against BetMGM's -125 odds on Under 16.5 attempts, we're get ting a whopping 31% positive expected value on this bet.
The only thing I don't like about this market is that Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, doesn't offer it. Therefore, we don't have that additional piece of information to potentially push this to a five-star pick.
However, we can look to a different market offered by Pinnacle for a clue that we're on the right side of this bet.
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Here's that extra info I was talking about. Almost all of our best sports betting apps have Jones' rushing yards total set at 67.5, and that includes Pinnacle. The only other sportsbook that's offering anything higher than that number is FanDuel with 68.5.
Jones' average rushing yards projection is 65.15, and even the most optimistic among those is projecting him to finish with 68. If we run that average projection against this inflated total available at BetRivers, we're getting roughly 17% +EV on this bet.
The aforementioned FanDuel number still provides 15.5% +EV on the Under, so that's also a good spot to bet this if you don't have access to BetRivers.
Pinnacle opened Jones' rushing yards total at 73.5, but it's dropped all the way to 67.5, with the Under still receiving action even on that number – it moved from -112 to -118.
Watson returned on Wild Card Weekend following a hamstring injury, and he managed just one catch for nine yards. But he should be one week healthier, and, as previously mentioned, the game script for this contest is expected to be very different from that one.
The only thing tha t stopped me from making this a four-star pick is that there's a level of uncertainty I'm not entirely comfortable with (full disclosure: I still bet this myself). That's evident both by Watson's performance last week and his projections for this one.
Across four projection models, Watson's average receptions total is 2.84. However, that includes a high of four catches and a low of 1.9. It's a bit unsettling that these models are so far off from agreeing on a relatively similar total.
We'll use other data to help make our decision more informed. In this case, it's the odds movement at Pinnacle. The Over opened at +115 and has been bet to +100, and it reached -110 on Thursday before some buyback on the Under. At the very least, we can see that this specific price on the Over was attractive to sharp bettors.
With the average projection of 2.84, we're getting roughly 16.5% +EV on th is bet at FanDuel. The only other one of our best sportsbooks that's offering plus-money odds on the Over is Caesars with its +106. The remainder are pricing the Over at either even odds or minus money.
FanDuel is offering a boost of -135 to +120 for the Packers to cover +14.5 and Jordan Love to finish with 200-plus passing yards.
Packers-49ers player props made Friday at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)