Packers Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Green Bay

Our Green Bay Packers betting preview looks at whether Jordan Love can lead the Green Bay Packers to the playoffs or an NFC North Division title, using the best odds from the best sports betting apps.

Entering the 2023 NFL season, the expectations for the Green Bay Packers are the lowest they have been in several seasons. The Packers have a win total of 7.5 wins, which is their lowest at our best sports betting sites since the 2007 regular season when their win total was also set at 7.5 wins. That year marked Brett Favre's last season in a Packers uniform, and it was the year before Aaron Rodgers took over as the starting quarterback. Throughout the 15 seasons that Rodgers was the starting quarterback for the Packers, their win total had always been higher than 7.5 wins.

Now, with Rodgers gone and Jordan Love taking over as the startin g quarterback, a new era has dawned at Lambeau Field. However, the question remains: are the expectations for what Love will accomplish in his first season as the full-time starter too low in the betting markets?

While it's unlikely that the Packers will finish with 13 wins, as they have in three of their last four seasons, there is reason to believe they may be better than the market currently prices them. I certainly think so!

Check out our 2023 Green Bay Packers betting preview based on the odds from our
best NFL betting sites as part of our 2023 NFL betting guide (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Green Bay Packers betting preview 2023

After serving as the Packers' starting quarterback for 15 seasons, Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets, marking the beginning of the Love era in Green Bay. With Rodgers being a one-man wrecking crew and a four-time winner of the NFL MVP award, it's natural for the narrative and public perception of the Packers to have diminished after his departure.

Last season, the Packers won eight games with Rodgers as their starting quarterback, even though their win total was set at 11. This has led to doubts about the Packers' ability to achieve the same 8 wins with Love now leading the team. This prevailing narrative and public perception, which suggests a significant drop-off in production between Rodgers and Love, has actually created an opportunity for us to find value in betting on the Over for the Packers' win total. I believe we are witnessing the betting markets over-adjusting in response to the loss of Rodgers.

Although my power ratings place the Packers in the bottom third, the schedule works in their favor, and they're projected to win 8.2 games this season. Based on this projection, we can price the Packers at -150 to surpass the win total of 7.5 games. Given that DraftKings offers odds of -115, this bet demonstrates a positive expected value of 12%.

Do I think the Packers are the best team in the NFC North? Nope, that honor goes to the Detroit Lions. However, my focus is not on predicting the best team but on identifying the team offering the best price. My projections show the Packers winning 8.2 games and the Lions winning 9.1, which might lead one to consider betting on the Lions to win the NFC North. But let's examine the pricing more closely.

With the Packers projected to win 8.2 games, I can price them at +322 to win the NFC North. Our price aligns with FanDuel's opinion on this topic at +340, but we have a significant edge over the DraftKings price of +475. Based on our price of +322, this bet shows a positive expected value of 36%.

Now, let's consider the Lions. We can price them at +172 to win the NFC North, and the best price available is +155 via FanDuel. This indic ates that a bet on the Lions to win the NFC North has a negative expected value of 6%. Even though our projections indicate the Lions winning more games and carrying a higher power rating, the best bet relative to the odds at this time is on the Packers at +475.

Given the substantial probability gap available on the Packers, the optimal approach to winning this market might be to bet on the Packers now and wait for the opportunity to bet on the Lions when their odds show a higher expected value.

In sports betting, the goal is to identify these gaps in the numbers, establish expected value, and achieve long-term success. While any outcome is possible in a sporting event, the key question is whether you're receiving proper compensation for the outcome you bet on. In the case of betting on the Packers to win the NFC North, our numbers suggest that you're being overcompensated for this outcome occurring.

If you're a Packers fan or looking to back the Packers this season, you'll need a DraftKings account because, for the third straight bet, DraftKings offers the best price on a futures bet for the Packers. It's evident that DraftKings has taken a firm stance on the Packers not performing well with Love as their quarterback and doesn't mind deviating slightly from the market in all these bets.

Based on our power rating, the Packers are projected to win 8.2 games, which allows us to price them at +134 to make the playoffs. This means the +180 price available at DraftKings shows an expected value of 20%. Regarding the Packers making the playoffs, I believe it's wiser to bet on them winning the NFC North, as it's probably their most likely path to the playoffs.

The Packers are ranked 21st in my power ratings, indicating a low ceil ing, but their schedule should keep them competitive. The Packers have similar vibes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, NFC South Champions) or the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, AFC South Champions) from last season. I don't foresee the Packers reaching 10 wins and securing a wild-card spot; it's more plausible for them to earn a playoff berth by winning the division with an 8-9 or 9-8 record.

In addition to this opinion, the number breakdowns show that the NFC North bet also offers a higher expected value at 36%, making it the preferred route for betting on the Packers, although the bet on them making the playoffs is still solid with an expected value of 20%.

I could recommend playing the Over on Love's passing yard total, but Neil Parker has already provided that breakdown for us in his NFL passing props article here at Sportsbook Review. Instead of doubling down and piggybacking on Parker's pick of Love Over 3,350.5 passing yards at +125 via DraftKings, I'd like to highlight another Love passing prop where we also see an edge in the price, and you guessed it, it's at DraftKings.

There's a nice edge in the odds for Love's passing props because, generally speaking, expectations are low for him in the market. Additionally, the trading team at DraftKings really doesn't have a positive outlook on Love and the Packers this season. Betting on Love to achieve 4,000-plus passing yards might not be a bet that a lot of people will want to place, but let's check out the difference in pricing among the NFL odds.< /p>

FanDuel is trading Love at +230 to have 4,000+ passing yards, while bet365 is offering considerably longer odds at +500. However, it gets even better with DraftKings providing odds of +750. If Love were trading at +230 across all of our best sportsbooks, we wouldn't have a bet to place in this market. However, with DraftKings going all the way up to +750, Love immediately becomes an intriguing bet to throw for 4,000+ passing yards.

If the +750 price point isn't enticing enough to hit the button on Love, we are seeing projections in the 3,717 passing yards range for him, which puts Love much closer to the 4,000-plus mark than the +750 price point implies.

This market isn't widely available, so we can't compare prices at our best NFL prop betting sites as much as I'd like to. However, we do see a difference in pricing just between bet365 and BetRivers. Packers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell has been among the leaders in this category for the past several seasons, and at +4000, there's an argument to be made to bet on him and maybe catch him making that leap to the top.

Last season, Campbell recorded 96 tackles, but that was over only 13 games. In the previous season, he recorded 146 tackles in 16 games. If we take the pace he was on and average it out, it would be 125 tackles last season and 155 the year prior. Looking at his projections for this season, it falls into a similar number that we have seen in the past from Campbell at 137.9 tackles. The thing for Campbell is that 137.9 tackles won't be enough to lead the NFL, but is there an opportunity to catch him making a leap this season in this category?

I've bet on this market plenty of times, and you're usually looking for a linebacker on a mediocre offense/team. If your team is trailing and the opposing offense is running the ball, or your offense isn't dominating the time of possession, there's plenty more opportunity for tackles.

In a season where the Packers were 13-4 and Rodgers was named NFL MVP, Campbell recorded 146 tackles in 16 games and was on pace for 155 tackles. Imagine what those tackle numbers could inflate to with an offense that won't be as potent with Love at quarterback and a Packers squad that has a win total of 7.5?

Campbell has shown us with the Packers that he is capable of being a part of this conversation to lead the NFL in tackles, and for +4000, he could be worth a light wager to make the le ap and lead the NFL in tackles during the 2023 season.

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