Can Giannis Antetokounmpo guide his team to a win and a spot in the In-Season Tournament Final or will Tyrese Haliburton be too much as we look at our Pacers vs. Bucks NBA player props based on the best NBA odds for the NBA Cup semifinals.
Guided by Tyrese Haliburton's monster performance and big second half, the Indiana Pacers pulled away from the Boston Celtics in Monday's quarterfinals matchup to advance to the semifinals of the first-ever NBA Cup.
The Milwaukee Bucks didn't need late-game heroics as they dismantled the New York Knicks on Tuesday. The Pacers narrowly defeated the Bucks 126-124 on Nov. 9, but can Milwaukee avenge that defeat to advance to the inaugural In-Season Tournament Final? The Bucks are consensus betting favorites by the NBA Cup odds.
Here are our best Pacers vs. Bucks NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Pacers vs. Bucks NBA player props: NBA Cup Semifinals
The Greek Freak's scoring prop is set at 32.5 across our best sports betting apps, and both FanDuel and DraftKings give us the option to climb the ladder to 34.5 points or 39.5 points. No one can stop us, we're going all the way up!
Since the start of the 2022-23 NBA season, Giannis is tied with Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell and teammate Damian Lillard for the most 40-point games, with 15. This season, he's second only to Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic with three 40-point outings. He went off for a season-high 54 points against Indiana in his first meeting with the Pacers, and last season, he finished with 41, 38, and 25 points in three outings against Indiana.
Indiana allows the most points, the most points in the paint, and the most fastbreak points, which benefit a player who does most of his scoring close to the basket and ranks fourth in the NBA in transition points. This is a smash spot for Giannis, and we're taking the long odds on him posting his fourth 40-burger of the season.
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In Monday's Celtics-Pacers piece, I foolishly picked Haliburton to go Under 41.5 PRAs. Not a good look, as he finished with his first career triple-double in a 26/10/13 effort. Haliburton did that at home, where he's averaged just 39.5 PRAs this season. On the road, he's averaged a ridiculous 50.8 PRAs. We're taking – you guessed it – the Over for Indiana's trip to Milwaukee.
Hali is enjoying the best statistical season of his career, averaging 42.8 PRAs per contest. He's gone for at least 45 in seven of 17 outings, including four times in his last six games overall. He posted a 29/6/10 line against Milwaukee when the teams met on Nov. 9, going for exactly 45 PRAs.
The Bucks allow the seventh-most points and 12th-most assists to opponents, and the Pacers and Bucks both rank in the top five by fastest pace. There should be plenty of opportunities to score and facilitate for Haliburton, and we can expect another strong performance as he tries to outduel Giannis and lead the Pacers to the NBA Cup Finals.
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Indiana has been notoriously stingy to opposing defenders this season, as the Pacers allow the fewest blocks on the road and the fewest steals overall. Understandably, the Unders on BroLo's steals and blocks props are ridiculously juiced to odds at -150 or shorter. There's no value to be had with those de fensive props, so we'll look at his PRA prop instead.
On the season, Lopez is averaging 20.4 PRAs at home compared to 19 on the road. It's not a significant home/road split, and Lopez's home average is skewed tremendously by an outlier 39-point game he had against the Washington Wizards.
Aside from that performance, Lopez has not fared well against fast-paced teams. In five other matchups against teams with a top-five pace, he averaged just 13 PRAs and didn't go over 21 in any of them. He finished with just two points and a rebound against Indiana in the team's first meeting of the season.
Lopez is in for another fast-paced outing Thursday, and this one could turn into a shootout. We'll take the Under here for a player who's best in a slower-paced, half-court game rather than a run-and-gun bonanza.
That type of game benefits Giannis and Hali.
Pacers-Bucks NBA player props made 12/6/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
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