Welcome to Week 4 of the college football season.
Each week, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on select games.
It was a 6-6 showing for Week 3, but we're dusting ourselves off and we're back at it for Week 4. Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Wednesday night.
West Virginia Mountaineers (-1.5, 50.5) at Virginia Tech Hokies
Adam Burke: We started to see some interest in Virginia Tech from Monday night into Tuesday morning, and my power ratings agree with the move. Even though Va. Tech’s Week 1 loss to Old Dominion is still top of mind for many, the Hokies have buckled down nicely in wins over Boston College and Wofford. They’ve only allowed a combined 17 points in the last two games and may be able to get the offense going this week.
The Mountaineers may have gained some confidence with the win over Towson, but have allowed 93 points in two games against FBS teams. The “Backyard Brawl” was there for the taking, but allowing 55 points to Kansas was not a good look the following week. Virginia Tech hasn’t played a murderers’ row of opponents, but the Hokies are fourth in the nation in yards per play against and have allowed just 201 yards per game. Meanwhile, WVU has allowed 6.3 yards per play to two FBS opponents.
With a line this low, betting the underdog generally means betting the moneyline and that’s what I’d recommend here. If you want the + 1.5 for peace of mind, at least sprinkle something on the moneyline as well.
Pick: Virginia Tech ML (+ 105)
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-2, 62) at Georgia State Panthers
Adam Burke: Losing to North Carolina and South Carolina is nothing for a Sun Belt team to be ashamed of, especially given that the Gamecocks returned two blocked punts for touchdowns in the 35-14 win. However, what Georgia State did against Charlotte is cause for concern. The Panthers outgained the 49ers by about 100 yards but lost 42-41 to a Charlotte team that had been beaten by 30, 17 and 35 in its first three games.
The Chanticleers have gotten into the 30s in all three of their games, so they have to be eager to face this Panthers defense (a defense they scored 40 points against last season even though QB Grayson McCall was sidelined with an injury). The Chants came up one yard short on a potential game-tying two-point conversion attempt after their defense faltered at the worst possible time. That loss knocked Coastal Carolina out of the Top 25, so they have revenge on their minds heading to Atlanta.
My line on this game is Coastal -3.5, so I don’t have a huge power-ratings overlay, but I have moved the Chanticleers down throughout the season to mirror the market to a higher degree. If they hadn’t lost four fumbles last week, they likely would have covered against Buffalo. They did struggle with Gardner-Webb, but that came on the heels of playing Army’s triple-option attack.
Coastal’s offense creates a lot of mismatches with pre-snap motion and deception. With less time to prepare, Georgia State’s defense might give up a lot of explosive plays. That’s enough to put me on the short road favorite.
Pick: Coastal Carolina -2
Nevada at Air Force (-24, 46)
Jeff Parles: The Falcons were stunned by Wyoming on Friday night as 17-point road favorites. The Cowboys were able to contain the triple option, forcing Air Force to throw the ball 14 times. My preseason Mountain West champion is now behind the eight ball and Nevada is the right team to draw after a disastrous loss.
The Wolf Pack gave up 27 points to Iowa last week, which is equivalent to giving up 105 to Alabama. Nevada won two in a row in fluky fashion to begin the season and looked bad the last two weeks against Incarnate Word and Iowa.
This is a golden bounce-back spot for Air Force, getting a horrible team that will more than likely be clueless against the triple option. I’ll lay the 24 with the Falcons as this game will look similar to their dismantling of Colorado in Week 2.
Pick: Air Force -24
Texas Longhorns (-6.5, 59.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Adam Burke: While I won’t exclaim, “Texas is back!” I will say the Longhorns are moving in a positive direction. They nearly upset Alabama two weeks ago and followed that up with a blowout win over UTSA. The Longhorns could have sat around and sulked after coming close to beating the most consistent program in college football, but they rallied instead and trounced a very good Roadrunners team.
Texas hits the road for the first time but remains in the Lone Star State with a trip to Lubbock. The line has gone from -4.5 to -6.5, but my power ratings still have a noticeable overlay with my line at -10. If Quinn Ewers hadn’t gotten hurt, maybe this line is north of a touchdown, but Hudson Card is a viable backup and the backfield is one of the best in the nation. Texas Tech is never known for physicality, and the Longhorns just ran for 298 yards on 36 carries against a fairly physical UTSA defense.
Bijan Robinson had 183 of those yards on 20 carries, as Steve Sarkisian’s bunch finally unlocked the ground game’s potential. Card was an effective 15-of-23 passing for 161 yards and no interceptions. More of that should work for Texas this week.
With Tyler Shough out, Donovan Smith has thrown seven touchdown passes but also has five interceptions and has been sacked 10 times. The Red Raiders ran 69 offensive plays last week but managed just 14 points, as they were 2-of-12 on third down. Texas should wear them down and cover this number.
Pick: Texas -6.5
Notre Dame at North Carolina (-1.5, 55.5)
Danny Burke: Notre Dame is in big trouble. I saw it firsthand Saturday in South Bend, an underwhelming 24-17 win over Cal. The offensive staff has no trust in quarterback Drew Pyne, nor should they. He threw at least one pass attempt past the sticks, which resulted in a touchdown, but otherwise it seemed like all short rollout passes to a tight end or running back. That’s not going to cut it against a prolific offense such as North Carolina. The Tar Heels are averaging 51.3 PPG compared to a measly 18.3 for the Fighting Irish. Drake Maye is far and away the better quarterback in this game, having already thrown for 930 yards, 11 touchdowns and just one interception.
Undefeated UNC has the momentum, the offensive dominance and a setting away from South Bend in their favor. Just because the Irish finally got a win, that doesn’t mean they are ready to rock. They won Saturday in the ugliest fashion, and, honestly, the Cal receiver should’ve caught that Hail Mary, down seven points, at the end of the game.
Not only do the Tar Heels have the offensive advantage, let’s not forget that they should have the coaching advantage. Mack Brown has his boys fighting, competing and, most importantly, believing they can overcome any opponent. And, no, the Tar Heels defense does not look pretty, but you know what looks uglier? Drew Pyne attempting to play quarterback.
Pick: North Carolina ML (-120)