Welcome to Week 11 of the college football season.
Each week, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on select games.
We had a 4-4 showing in Week 9 and we’re looking to get on the plus side in Week 11. Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Wednesday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits and live odds across the college football market.
Season record: 45-49-1
Fresno State Bulldogs (-9.5, 60.5) at UNLV Rebels
Adam Burke: Jake Haener may be the most impactful player to return from an injury in college football this season. In two games since coming back, the Fresno State quarterback has thrown for 721 yards and completed over 78% of his passes in wins against San Diego State and Hawaii. He had three touchdowns against the Aztecs and four against the Rainbow Warriors. Backup Logan Fife had two touchdown passes in four starts and a relief appearance.
Haener and the Bulldogs draw a UNLV team that simply won’t be able to keep pace. After starting 4-1 (with a close loss at Cal as the only blemish), the Rebels have dropped four straight and have been outscored 140-45. Doug Brumfield returned last week against San Diego State but was largely ineffective except for a 70-yard pass that accounted for nearly 34% of his passing yards for the game. He threw two picks and was sacked three times.
Marcus Arroyo isn’t a very good coach and teams have adjusted to everything the Rebels are doing. Based on the final scores, UNLV hasn’t been able to adjust back. My line on this game is Fresno -12 and Haener should have the opportunity to put on a show at Allegiant Stadium. The Rebels won’t be able to keep up.
Pick: Fresno State -9.5
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5, 44.5)
Adam Burke: The wind isn’t going to be as extreme as it was last week around the Big Ten, but several passing offenses are going to struggle. One such offense is Purdue. The Boilermakers only managed 255 yards of offense last week against Iowa as the winds swirled in West Lafayette. With gusts in the 20-25 mph range expected in Champaign for this week’s rivalry game, Illinois’ strong rushing attack should be better suited for the conditions.
Purdue has dominated this rivalry, winning five of the last six and 13 of 17, but this is the Illini’s best season in quite some time and Bret Bielema’s team should be focused after last week’s loss to Michigan State. That setback tightened up the Big Ten West, but a win over Purdue after earlier wins over Wisconsin and Iowa would give the Illini a cushion before a likely loss to Michigan next week.
Illinois was a right-side loser last week. The Illini outgained Michigan State by nearly 150 yards. Illinois was just 1-of-6 on third down and had other self-inflicted wounds. Losing to this version of Michigan State looks bad, but Illinois deserved a better fate. The full body of work is why Illinois is laying nearly a touchdown here and this line is pretty telling. Personally, I have it Illinois -8, so I’ll lay the number with the second-ranked defense in the nation by yards per play and the wind providing a helping hand.
Pick: Illinois -6.5
LSU Tigers (-3.5, 62) at Arkansas Razorbacks
Wes Reynolds: LSU pulled the upset over Alabama by going for two and converting in overtime last weekend. Now the Tigers take to the road for an early Saturday kick-off in Fayetteville against an Arkansas team that lost outright at home as over 14-point favorites to Liberty.
Arkansas ranks 10th in the nation for rushing offense averaging 233.3 on the ground per game, which is very attractive for an underdog that can run the ball and control the clock.
Hogs head coach Sam Pittman is 12-6 ATS as an underdog at Arkansas.
This is the vintage buy-low, sell-high spot on LSU. Granted, Brian Kelly’s squad has improved throughout the season. However, this is a team that was fortunate to get by Auburn last month and might be feeling themselves a little bit after that massive win over Alabama.
Pick: Arkansas +3.5
SMU Mustangs (-17.5, 72.5) at South Florida Bulls
Wes Reynolds: Last week, it was Auburn in the first game after the coach got fired. This week, it is South Florida. Head coach Jeff Scott was relieved of his duties after a 4-26 record with the Bulls. Special teams coordinator Daniel Da Prato takes over as interim coach and linebackers coach Ernie Sims takes over as defensive coordinator after Bob Shoop was also let go.
On the surface, this matchup looks like a cakewalk for SMU considering they scored 77 vs. Houston last week. In fact, SMU and Houston combined for 140 points, setting the all-time FBS record for combined points in regulation. Meanwhile, South Florida gave up 54 points at Temple.
Nevertheless, this is not the best spot for SMU having beaten its AAC rival and having a big game with 8-1 Tulane on deck.
Starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon was lost for the season a couple weeks ago, but Katravis Marsh, while not the runner of Bohanon’s caliber, is a more capable passer especially with bigger chunk plays down the field. Bohanon only had six touchdown passes in seven starts while Marsh has six already in basically two and a half games. Marsh also averages 7.9 yards per pass as opposed to Bohanon’s 6.7 and has a rating of 144.3 to Bohanon’s 117.9.
While USF is 1-8 this season they have been competitive in some games with better teams. They potentially could have won outright at Florida before falling 31-28 and took Cincinnati to the limit before losing 28-24. The Bulls also lost by two touchdowns vs. Tulane and Houston.
This is a game where you have to hold your nose to bet, but SMU is inflated off scoring 77 last week and USF may follow the pattern of teams giving big efforts the week after their head coaches get fired.
Pick: South Florida +17.5