Welcome to Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8, 45) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Adam Burke: The Buccaneers aren’t quite on track yet, but they got a little closer last week. Leonard Fournette had a big game against the Falcons and Tom Brady was able to throw passes to both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. While the offense tries to find its sea legs, the defense remains a constant. The Bucs are third in Total Defense DVOA and first in Pass Defense DVOA.
Against a Steelers team that cannot run the ball with any measure of effectiveness and has a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett making his second career start, the Bucs defense should be suffocating. Taking the Bucs at the full -8 probably isn’t a bad idea, but they also qualify as a really good teaser candidate to pair with a variety of teams, including the Jaguars.
Taking Tampa Bay down from -8 to -2 in a game they have no business losing creates a nice safety net and a solid complement to the Jaguars + 8 at Indianapolis, as we go through the 3 and 7 corridor with both sides.
Pick: Buccaneers -2/Jaguars + 8 Teaser
Femi Abebefe: I’ve been waiting for the Buccaneers offense, now that it’s healthy at wide receiver, to have that breakout performance that solidifies Tampa Bay as one of the best teams in the NFL. Whether it was the Sunday night game against Kansas City or last week against Atlanta, the Bucs have been underwhelming.
Tampa’s calling card has been their defense, which ranks among the best in the NFL. When the lines reopened Sunday night, I figured we’d see Tampa installed as a touchdown favorite, but now that’s it’s more than that, I have to look at the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is coming off an absolute thrashing by the Bills in Kenny Pickett’s first career start. Despite a score of 38-3, I thought Pickett fared well in what was as tough a spot as you’ll find for a rookie quarterback to make his NFL debut. I don’t like living on narrative street, but this could be one of those buy-low spots on a home underdog that was embarrassed the week prior.
And just to bring the narrative home, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 14-3-3 against the spread as a home underdog. My guess is Tomlin gets the troops fired up and they make it competitive against Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Pick: Steelers + 8
Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 43) at New Orleans Saints
Dave Tuley: In my “Tuley’s Takes” column this week on the Week 6 card, the theme was all the short dogs and how I can’t quite make a case to bet them against the spread, but I can make a case to bet them in teasers as we can capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. In this game, it’s still unclear if Jameis Winston will return at QB for New Orleans or if Andy Dalton will start again, but either way it’s safe to assume QB/TE Taysom Hill (112 rushing yards, three rushing TDs, one passing TD and a fumble recovery on special teams versus the Seahawks) will continue to have an expanded role. The Bengals are in a fadeable spot as they continue to suffer from the “Super Bowl loser hangover,” so we’ll tease the Saints to + 8 and use them with our other preferred dog for teasers, the Seahawks + 8.5 versus the Cardinals.
Pick: Saints + 8/Seahawks + 8.5 Teaser
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 42)
Adam Burke: Division rivals collide at Lucas Oil Stadium in a game that probably won’t garner a ton of betting interest.
Jacksonville looked really promising for a hot minute after a shutout win against the Colts and a blowout win over the Chargers, but losses to the Eagles and Texans tempered expectations quickly.
The Colts are on some extra prep after kicking their way to a 12-9 win over the Broncos that saved their season last Thursday night. Falling to 1-3-1, even in the lowly AFC South, would have been a tough hole to get out of, but they have a chance now at 2-2-1.
This isn’t going to be a landmark handicap or anything. This is purely a math play. The Jaguars are + 2 in a game with a total of 42. Taking them up six points to + 8 gets the key numbers in the 3 through 7 corridor and also makes a lot of sense in a game projected to be lower-scoring. It’s even better that we get the better quarterback at the inflated spread.
Pick: Jaguars + 8/Buccaneers -2 Teaser
Femi Abebefe: Most of us were all a little too excited about the start for the Jaguars. I firmly believe they’re on an upward trajectory, but they’re still a young team that simply makes too many mistakes.