Welcome to Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night.
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 41) in London
Dave Tuley: We successfully faded the Packers at home last week and see no reason not to fade them again on a neutral field in London. Aaron Rodgers and his receivers still look out of sync after not working much together in the offseason or preseason. Rodgers somehow rallied the Packers past the Patriots 27-24 in OT last week but were never close to covering as 9.5-point faves. The Packers’ biggest weakness continues to be their run defense, and Giants RB Saquon Barkley comes in as the league leader with 463 rushing yards. QB Daniel Jones (ankle) is expected to play, though the focus should be on letting Barkley run wild against the Packers defense.
Pick: Giants + 7.5Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, 43.5)
Adam Burke: The Jaguars are -7 almost across the board, which would mark the first time since Week 8 of the 2019 season that they were favored by that much. They were actually favored by more than a touchdown three times during the 2018 calendar year, including a playoff game against the Bills. That being said, this is still rare air for this team.It appears to be deserved though. The Texans have gotten very little out of Davis Mills, have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league and have one major weakness that might lead to this game getting out of hand. Houston is 31st in third-down conversion rate at 26.9%, and extra possessions are what the Jaguars need to be able to cover this spread.
The Jaguars are coming off of an outlier performance with five turnovers, including four lost fumbles, against the Eagles. I’m not saying they should have won the game, but the Eagles scored the majority of their points off of turnovers and the game could have gone very differently had the oblong-shaped ball bounced in another direction. It was the first game in which we saw the Jacksonville offense held in check after racking up at least 330 yards in each of the first three games.
The Jaguars should get back on track this week with the Texans. Houston’s 5.1 yards per play on offense were boosted by over nine yards per carry last week against the Chargers. The Jags have defended the run well.
The Texans have allowed opponents 15 trips into the red zone but have allowed just seven touchdowns. They’ve been fortunate in that regard. Add up red-zone regression on defense and a bad third-down offense and you have the conditions for a blowout.
Pick: Jaguars -7
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14.5, 46)
Dave Tuley: I think this number has been adjusted too high after it was Bills -9.5 on the advance line last week. It reopened -14 on Sunday afternoon and that’s where it remains everywhere except DraftKings, which has added the hook. The Bills are certainly capable of blowing teams out, but they’ve played close games the last two weeks (loss at Dolphins, win at Ravens). While the Steelers aren’t as good as those teams, parity still exists in the NFL and their defense should keep this relatively close (I trust Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin to have a game plan to contain Buffalo QB Josh Allen) and rookie Kenny Pickett should be better prepared with a full week of reps with the first team. He already seems to have a good rapport with fellow rookie George Pickens.
Pick: Steelers + 14.5Adam Burke: The Steelers face long odds against the Bills this week. In fact, as many have noted, this is likely to be the first time the Steelers have been 14-point underdogs since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Big spreads can lead to lower-scoring games, especially with an underdog that has an inefficient passing offense. Buffalo can get ahead and just salt the game away.
That’s what the Bills will likely look to do in this one. The spot is not a good one, coming off of the big Ravens win with the Chiefs on deck in a playoff revenge game. Josh Allen should be instructed not to take any unnecessary risks or hits here, which means he’ll stay in the pocket and throw instead of running around. With over six yards per carry this season on 30 attempts, Allen’s legs have been a big part of the offense.
For as bad as the Steelers are offensively, their defense is still extremely competent, even without T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh has only allowed 5.1 yards per play and has eight takeaways. They’re right in the middle of the pack in points per drive against, despite being 29th in opponents’ average starting field position. All of their games have totaled 46 points or fewer, and there was the “garbagest” of garbage-time touchdowns against the Browns to push that game as high as it went.
With Kenny Pickett set to start after a three-interception effort against the Jets, it’s hard to put a high projection on the Steelers offense. He’s got a chance to be better than Mitch Trubisky, but that is a low bar as the offense that has mustered just 4.8 yards per play and ranks 25th in Offensive DVOA.
The Steelers have a knack for playing a lot of close games. For this game to be close, scoring will have to stay on the lower side. I could certainly see a Steelers + 14.5 bet coming through, but I prefer the Under 46.5.
Pick: Under 46.5 (widely available)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 46)
Adam Burke: The Falcons are one of the most improved teams in the league. Watching the Colts offense struggle, you can’t help but wonder if Matt Ryan is limited at this stage of his career and was holding Atlanta back. Marcus Mariota hasn’t put up eye-popping numbers by any means, but the Falcons have scored on over 44% of their possessions and put up at least 23 points in every game.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are in shambles. The offense is averaging 5.2 yards per play and has scored on less than 35% of its possessions. Tom Brady’s going through a very public divorce, which is enough to affect anybody’s performance. More than that, though, the Buccaneers’ offensive line and a litany of injuries have hurt this team in a big way. Some of those guys return this week, but it may take some time to get back up to game speed.
The injury to Cordarrelle Patterson is probably going to scare some people off of the Falcons, but Tampa Bay doesn’t deserve to be laying more than a touchdown against anybody. Brady looks hurt, old and simply doesn’t appear to be enjoying himself. As the leader of the team, that has a trickle-down effect.
He’s not getting any help. The Bucs rushed for three yards last week against the Chiefs — not 3.0 yards per carry, three yards total — on the heels of rushing for 34 yards against the Packers. They’re a one-dimensional offense that has become easier to defend with Brady’s declining skills and the wide receiver absences. Maybe they get it together this week, but Atlanta has a good running game that can control the clock and play keep-away to keep this game close.
Pick: Falcons + 10
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5, 44)
Adam Burke: The Vikings fall under the category of being a good teaser leg against the Bears this week. We’ve got a low total of 44 and the opportunity to take Minnesota down from -7.5 to -1.5, crossing through the key numbers of 3 and 7.The Vikings have underwhelmed to this point. There was a ton of buzz in the preseason about how their offensive potential would be unlocked on Kevin O’Connell’s watch. They’re 3-1, but they’ve been outgained by 0.6 yards per play and the offense has only managed 5.4 YPP. They’ve allowed at least 111 rushing yards in every game but have flipped the script and come out on the winning end of some close decisions.