The Baltimore Orioles (+135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-160) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 80-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 79-76 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 away games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 96-59 against the Run Line (+24.7 Units / 12.09% ROI).
- 80-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +25.6 Units / 15.18% ROI
- 70-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.8 Units / -9.28% ROI
- 79-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 1.31% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 79-76 against the Run Line (-0.4 Units / -0.21% ROI).
- 74-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.7 Units / -8.19% ROI
- 72-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -4.25% ROI
- 73-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -3.24% ROI
Michael Baumann: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (16/110) against Michael Baumann this month (4 games) — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (12/23) against Michael Baumann — 12th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% (23/43) against Michael Baumann this month (4 games) — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 93rd Percentile.
Michael Baumann has thrown off-speed pitches 61% of the time (96/156) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 92nd Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (23/159) against Nathan Eovaldi on non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 69% (3,118/4,530) since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (59/308) against Nathan Eovaldi this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 70% (688/981) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.