The Baltimore Orioles (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on Monday, September 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 79-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 76-75 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 26 away games (+14.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+14.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+11.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+9.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 49% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 132 games (+30.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 132 games (+28.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 away games (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 70 games (+8.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 58 games at home (+3.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.50 Units / 20% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 95-57 against the Run Line (+27 Units / 13.54% ROI).
- 79-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +26.55 Units / 16.03% ROI
- 68-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.65 Units / -9.98% ROI
- 78-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 1.96% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -1.81% ROI).
- 71-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.45 Units / -9.37% ROI
- 69-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -5.48% ROI
- 72-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -2.01% ROI
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .725 (375 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .462 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .307 (375 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .418 (143 Total Bases / 342 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 0 Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .607 (17 Total Bases / 28 ABs) with two-strikes — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — third Percentile.
Connor Seabold: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Seabold has limited playing time.