The Baltimore Orioles (+100) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-120) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 9-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 14-14 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Kyle Gibson | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +105 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 142 games (+28.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 142 games (+22.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 12-9 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 5.6% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -6.63% ROI
- 13-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 23.9% ROI
- 7-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -31.91% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 14-14 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -6.61% ROI).
- 13-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.43% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -11.15% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .364 (47-for-129) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (224/679) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .353 (42-for-119) against Kyle Gibson over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Kyle Gibson had a first-pitch strike rate of just 59% (423/719) last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .356 (47-for-132) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Corey Kluber walked 21 of 689 batters (3%) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Corey Kluber allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (75 Total Bases / 132 ABs) with runners in scoring position last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — fourth Percentile.