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The American League wild-card race has turned into a game of who can lose less often, and neither the Baltimore Orioles nor Boston Red Sox are faring particularly well. However, someone has to win on Tuesday night, so who'll get this vital victory?
- Orioles vs. Red Sox pick focuses on the home team's chances of righting the ship against a pitcher due for regression.
- Can Kutter Crawford continue his streak of longer starts, or will his issues with the home run ball bite him again?
- If Crawford does continue to give up moon shots, who will be the beneficiary?
- First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park.
Orioles vs. Red Sox pick
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
The Orioles remain the favorites by the World Series odds, but they haven't been doing thems elves any favors to prove oddsmakers correct during the second half of the season.
In fact, only two teams in the AL wild-card race are over .500 since the All-Star break, and the Orioles aren't one of them.
That's likely why we're seeing the Red Sox trading as home favorites despite being 8.5 games back of the Orioles.
We've seen Boston's moneyline odds shorten throughout the day, with most of our best sports betting sites having this closer to a pick'em when it opened.
The Red Sox are coming off a monster 12-3 win on Monday night, during which both of Rob Refsnyder and Tyler O'Neill hit two home runs, while Ceddane Rafaela added four RBIs of his own.
Baltimore sends Albert Suarez to the mound on Tuesday, and his expected stats are far worse than his actual numbers, signaling he could be due for some regression.
Suarez owns a 3.49 ERA but a 4.19 xERA, and his 87 strikeouts are the fourth-fewest among all starting pitchers with at least 110 innings this season (Suarez has 113 1/3).
Look for Boston to jump all over Suarez early and often, making these -140 odds seem like a bargain.
Odds: -140 via Betway | Implied probability: 58.33%
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Orioles vs. Red Sox player props
MLB picks made Tuesday at noon ET.
Opposing Suarez is Red Sox right-hander Crawford. He really impressed in his last start, holding the red-hot New York Mets to just one hit over six innings, during which he punched out eight.
Crawford has put together somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde performance this season, at one point serving as one of the best pitchers in baseball.
He owned a 2.17 ERA over his first 10 starts (58 innings). However, he's managed a 5.16 ERA in the 103 innings since then, giving up home runs for fun.
So, which Crawford will show up on Tuesday?
Based on his projections and recent form, I'm riding with Crawford to go Over 4.5 strikeouts.
The Orioles have hit only the 17th-most home runs in baseball since the begin ning of August, and the team that once looked like a postseason juggernaut now looks as though it may be another year away from fulfilling that destiny.
Odds: -140 via Betway | Implied probability: 58.33%
However, if the Orioles do get to Crawford, I think the best bet to do so is Cedric Mullins.
Mullins doesn't hit a ton of homers – he has just 15 on the season – but does so almost exclusively against right-handers. The outfielder has just one long ball against southpaws this season, and his .186 average against lefties further underscores his struggles in that matchup.
Fortunately, for Mullins, he gets a right-hander who's prone to giving up nukes.
I wouldn't bet more than maybe 0.25 to 0.3 units on this, as even a bet of $3 would result in $18 in profit if Mullins goes yard. That's why I've marked this as only two stars.
Odds: +600 via Betway | Implied probability: 14.29%
Orioles vs. Red Sox odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 10
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Fenway Park, Boston
- How to watch: MASN, NESN
- Favorite: Red Sox (-140 via Betway)
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