The Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors face off Thursday night in a Western Conference clash, and our top Nuggets vs. Warriors NBA player props based on the best NBA odds expect a tough game for Nikola Jokic and Chris Paul.
The last two NBA champions square off Thursday night when the Golden State Warriors (16-17) host the reigning title winner Denver Nuggets (24-11) in a rematch of their hotly contested showdown on Christmas Day.
The Nuggets won that one by six points after erasing a slim halftime deficit, though they benefitted from Nikola Jokic's 18-for-18 performance at the free-throw line – which drew the ire of Warriors coach Steve Kerr, who called out the state of NBA officiating postgame. Will we see the fruits of that rant take hold on Thursday?
Along with our Bucks vs. Spurs NBA player props, here are our best Nuggets vs. Warriors NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our
best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Warriors NBA player props
If there was a way to directly bet the Under on Jokic's free-throw attempts, I would. Instead, I'm fading the two-time MVP's points total in Thursday's highly anticipated rematch of that dramatic holiday affair.
Adam Silver may not like Kerr blasting what he called the “disgusting” state of NBA officiating, but the coach remains one of the most respected voices around the league, and his comments on Christmas Day were clearly intended to deter officials from allowing Warriors opponents to “parade to the free-throw line,” as he put it so eloquently.
Jokic was the one in the crosshairs that day, and he's attempted just four free throws in three games since while twice falling well short of this scoring total. In fact, the Nuggets star is averag ing a mere 21.1 points over the last month, and he's scored fewer than 26 points in nine of those 14 games – finishing with exactly 26 in three of the other five.
This wager is dealing at -105 or worse across three of our best sports betting sites, and it's trading at +104 via Caesars. These +110 odds at DraftKings feel like a gift on a number that's already a tick too high.
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The Paul experiment has been a work in progress for the Warriors, who inserted the veteran guard into the starting lineup over the last two games to mixed results.
Even with (slightly) more playing time, Paul combined for just 10 assists in those two starts. He's averaging a modest 4.3 dimes over his last four games – in cluding three in that loss to Denver on Christmas Day – while assuming a much larger scoring load (14.5 PPG) across those 10 days.
Paul is back in the starting lineup Thursday against a Nuggets defense allowing the sixth-fewest assists per game (24.9). This prop is dealing as short as -120 at bet365, which feels a bit low, but I'll gladly bet it at this -105 price.
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The high-profile nature of Thursday's nightcap means we have a much more robust list of player props to choose from. That spells value on guys like Watson, who is flying under the radar for oddsmakers with this paltry total.
Watson went 20 games without making a 3-pointer earlier this season amid inconsistent playing time, but the former first-round pick has seen his role expand over the last 10 gam es. He's responded by sinking 16 threes with at least one made triple in nine of those 10 contests, and he's hit eight 3s in his last four games alone.
Two of those came in spot starts with Aaron Gordon sidelined, but Watson hit two threes in his return to the bench on Monday. It's hard to project too much confidence in a role player, but I'm labeling this as a four-star play, anyway, at a number that feels downright disrespectful to the second-year wing.
Nuggets-Warriors NBA player props made Thursday at 1:45 p.m. ET.
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