The Denver Nuggets have the opportunity to sweep the Los Angeles Lakers in Monday's Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. Read on for our Nuggets vs. Lakers prediction based on the best NBA odds.
Get the brooms out. The Denver Nuggets, who have never defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in a playoff series, can put the finishing touches on a four-game sweep with another road win on Monday. No team has ever won a postseason series after facing a 3-0 hole.
The Nuggets are now on the verge of an NBA Finals berth for the first time in franchise history. The only question is, will they finish the job on the road on Monday or in front of their fans on Wednesday?
Here is our best Nuggets vs. Lakers prediction (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Lakers pr ediction
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Conventional wisdom would suggest Lakers guard D'Angelo Russell has to spend more time on the bench in Game 4. Russell has a plus-minus of minus-53 in the Western Conference Finals, which is the worst mark of all 46 players that have taken the court in the two Conference Finals entering Monday. For context, Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics is 45th with a minus-46.
But the Lakers have reportedly been worried about losing Russell if they opt to take him out of the starting lineup. More than that, this story from Sam Amick of The Athletic shows that head coach Darvin Ham and the Lakers still have confidence in Russell. Ham told reporters that “sometimes the greatest adjustment is just to play better,” and then he was seen talking to Russell immediately after the media session.
Basically, I am not as confident as the rest of the betting market that Russell is going to be benched. His lower prop lines would suggest that is the case, but it is easy to see a scenario where he continues to play close to his 26.3 minutes per game average this series.
If you are feeling bold, this could be an opportunity to bet the Over on some lower prop lines for Russell such as his points (10.5), assists (3.5), or 3-pointers (1.5) for Monday's Game 4. But we prefer betting his turnovers prop, which is being listed at 1.5 as of this writing.
Russell is coming off a three-turnover game and is averaging 1.7 turnovers per contest against the Nuggets. He has committed multiple turnovers in three of his last five games and four of his last seven. This postseason, Russell has recorded multiple turnovers in nine of the 1 6 games for a hit rate of 56%.
We expect Russell to be on the floor in Game 4, as the Lakers are running out of answers. Perhaps he makes a bigger impact offensively, and Los Angeles is able to stave off elimination. But we know he will be aggressive with his contract situation up in the air this offseason, and that could lead to a couple of costly turnovers against the best team in the West.
Nuggets vs. Lakers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 turnovers | Over 1.5 turnovers | Over 1.5 turnovers | Over 1.5 turnovers | Over 1.5 turnovers |
| -110 | N/A | -110 | -113 | -115 |
Most of the best sports betting apps offer a market for turnovers, and they all seem to agree with Russell's line being set at 1.5. The vig on the Over is priced between -110 and -115, though we wouldn't pay anything higher than -115 on this particular prop.
If you believe in the notion that Russell will continue to have a solid role in Game 4, many of his props are lower than usual. His 3-point prop is set at 1.5, with FanDuel offering the best price on the Over at -113. Russell is 2-for-14 from long range during this series, but the volume is there with at least five 3-point attempts in back-to-back games.
In the end, we settled on his turnovers prop at DraftKings. That is our favorite angle for Game 4.
Nuggets vs. Lakers odds
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals M VP odds.
Nuggets vs. Lakers odds analysis
The Lakers are 3-point favorites after laying -3.5 when betting lines were first released by our best NBA betting sites. Los Angeles closed as a 5.5-point favorite in Game 3, so the market clearly has more faith in Denver this time around.
As for the total, this line started at 225 before dropping down to 224.5 at the best live betting sites.
Nuggets vs. Lakers game info
- Date: Monday, May 22, 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Nuggets-Lakers pick made 05/22/2023 at 10:55 a.m. ET.
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