Two of the best teams in the NBA square off on Friday when Boston hosts Denver, and we're offering our top Nuggets vs. Celtics player props based on the best NBA odds.
In a battle between the two NBA Finals odds favorites, the defending-champion Denver Nuggets hit the road to take on the No. 1 team in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics.
This is the matchup that many thought they'd see in last year's NBA Finals before the Miami Heat upset the Celtics. Boston has looked like a team with a chip on its shoulder since then, making big offseason moves to acquire Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday ahead of this campaign. The Celtics own the best record and point differential in the league, and they look to make amends for last year's Eastern Conference Finals stumble.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have been slightly less impressive since winning the title last year, but they're still having a strong campaign. Denver sits third in the West and, as usual, has been an absolute juggernaut at home.
However, the Nuggets have struggled on the road this season and the Celtics are a perfect 20-0 at home. Is this a recipe for some big performances by Boston's stars?
To go along with our NBA Player Props & Best Bets, here are our best Nuggets vs. Celtics NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our
best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Celtics NBA player props
We start our player props with my best bet from this game, though it comes via a market I don't usually target. The PRA market does come with the risk of trying to lock in on a bet featuring more moving parts than your standard player prop. However, it does provide us with a greater margin for error on any one projection, since the bet won't live and die on that single number.
On Friday, NumberFire projects White to combine for 23.3 PRA. When we run that number against BetMGM's -120 odds on Over 20.5, we're getting roughly 15% positive expected value on this bet.
Comparatively, Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened the Over at -127. It's since been smashed to -156.
Among ou r best sports betting apps, FanDuel has already moved its line to 21.5.
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We're immediately going back to the PRA well with another Over, and it once again comes at BetMGM.
NumberFire projects Porzingis to finish with 29.2 PRA on Friday. When we run that projection against these -115 odds at BetMGM on the Over, we're getting nearly 13% +EV on this bet.
Additionally, this one is just as much about the number at BetMGM as it is about the value we're getting on the projection. Our other best sports betting sites all have Over 26.5 priced at -130 or shorter, and FanDuel and BetRivers already moved their line to 27.5.
Pinnacle opened with the Over priced at -117, and it's s ince moved to -149. That tells us there's been significant sharp action on the Over.
Yes, you read that correctly. We're offering three four-star picks today. If you're wondering what four stars mean for me, it represents that I immediately went to bet the very same pick I'm offering. I'll also bet most of my three-star picks, but four stars mean it's a smash spot.
Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic is projected for 22.7 points on Friday, according to NumberFire. When we run that projection against DraftKings' +110 odds on Under 25.5, we're getting a whopping 40% +EV on this bet.
Comparatively, all of our other best sportsbooks are pricing the Under at +105 or shorter. Pinnacle opened with the Under set at -110 and it's since been bet to -121.
Bonus pick: I bet on Jaylen Brown Under 24.5 points (-111 via Caesars), too. Sometimes, these big games show a real lack of value. But in other cases, such as this one, there are too many bets for one article to contain. This is a four-star pick, as well. Let's get this bread.
Nuggets-Celtics NBA player props made Friday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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