Notre Dame vs. Oregon State Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-29-2023

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College bowl season is in full swing and that brings us a clash of mid-major programs when a program from the Pac-12 takes on one of the nation’s lone remaining independents. The #19 Oregon State Beavers do battle with the #16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Friday afternoon. Oregon State finished the regular season 8-4 after getting drubbed 31-7 on the road by #6 Oregon in their finale November 24, failing to cover the line as a 13-point underdog. Notre Dame closed the regular season with a 9-3 mark, routing Stanford 56-23 on the road in their finale November 25 and covering the line as a 26-point favorite. In the all-time series between the schools, the Beavers have taken both meetings, including a 38-21 in the Insight.com Bowl on December 28, 2004 in Phoenix the last time the teams squared off.

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Oregon State dropped their final two games of the regular season as they were beaten by Washington and then Oregon. The Beavers enter this game 8-4 overall and finished tied for fourth in the Pac-12 with a 5-4 conference mark on the season. Against Oregon, Oregon State never led in the game, trailing 7-0 after the opening quarter, 21-7 at the half and 24-7 after three quarters. The Beavers’ chances slipped away as they gave up a touchdown drive that covered 78 yards in 40 seconds right before the half, turning a seven-point deficit into 14. Oregon State was drubbed 480-273 in total offense, gave up 28 first downs while picking up 17, lost the time of possession by a 34:03 to 25:57 margin and committed the game’s lone turnover.

On the season, the Beavers are 52nd in the nation in passing offense with 246.1 yards per game through the air. Oregon State is 35th in rus hing offense as they average 180.8 yards per contest this season. The Beavers are 26th of the 133 FBS teams to take the field this season in scoring offense as they put up 33.8 points per contest. Oregon State is 35th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 21.5 points per game this season. DJ Uiagalelei is 180 of 315 passing for 2,638 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions while ranking third on the team with 219 rushing yards plus six scores. Aidan Chiles (24 of 35, 309 yards, four TD, 79 rush yards, three TD) and Ben Gulbranson (one of one, six yards) also saw action. Damien Martinez is the lead back in the ground game with 194 carries for 1,185 yards and nine scores this season. Deshaun Fenwick (90 carries, 500 yards, five TD) provides a solid secondary option on the ground. In the passing attack, Silas Bolden reeled in a team-high 51 balls for 718 yards and five scores. Anthony Gould (44 receptions, 718 yards, two TD), tight end Jack Velli ng (29 grabs, 438 yards, eight TD) and Jesiah Irish (15 catches, 246 yards, TD) are the only other plays with at least 150 receiving yards this season. Atticus Sappington is a reliable kicker, hitting 49 of 50 extra point attempts and 13 of 14 on field goal attempts with a long of 48 on the year.

Oregon State is a team in flux heading into the bowl game. Jonathan Smith took the head coaching job at Michigan State and Kefense Hynson will coach the team here. Trent Bray will take over in 2024. Uiagalelei and Chiles are both in the portal so Gulbranson is #1 on the depth chart at QB. Martinez is doubtful here after being arrested on the suspicion of DUI last month. Velling is in the portal while Gould opted out, taking away two of the team’s top three pass catchers. In addition, their starting right tackle has opted out while their starting left tackle and guard were both injured and missed the Oregon game. Leading tackler Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, safety Akili Arnold, cornerback Jermod McCoy and Sappington are all also in the portal.

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