For college sports junkies, Memorial Day weekend brings with it one of the most underrated and entertaining championships of the season. Men's and women's college lacrosse national champions will be crowned in the coming days, with the men competing Saturday and Monday in Philadelphia and the women competing Friday and Sunday in Cary, North Carolina.
Sports betting odds suggest the outcome of the women's tournament is more up-in-the-air with four teams remaining, while Notre Dame is a substantial betting favorite on the men's side. Even with Notre Dame holding -300 odds to win the championship on FanDuel, Lacrosse Reference Founder Zack Capozzi says not to count out the other four teams in the field.
Capozzi explained that his Elo-based model creates a team strength rating that can be used to create win probabilities for games. Capozzi used his model to “run through various combinations of the final three games,” and the model spit out the following championship probabilities.
- Notre Dame: 49.1%
- Virginia: 24.4%
- Maryland: 15.0%
- Denver: 11.5%
“Yes, Notre Dame is the favorite, but LaxElo would take the field over the Irish,” Capozzi told via email.