Before breaking down the potential list of MVP candidates for 2023, let’s talk about what matters and what does not matter to MVP voters.
- Position: In the past two decades, two pure pitchers (Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander) have won MVP trophies (three in 33 years). Outfielders and corner infielders have won more than 75% of the time, including 14 of the 16 most recent recipients (second baseman Jose Altuve and DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani are the only exceptions).
- OPS Ranking: Counts twice as much as a player’s ranking in batting average, RBI, home runs, stolen bases or team winning percentage. Every (offensive) MVP winner since 2001 except for Ichiro Suzuki has had an OPS greater than .850.
- WAR: Twenty-four of the past 26 MVP winners (92%) ranked in the top three in WAR in their respective leagues. Seventeen winners (65%) finished as the league leader in WAR.
- Making History: There have been four “40-40” seasons in MLB history, and 23 “30-30” seasons in MLB history. Just three of those 27 (11.1%) players (Jose Canseco in 1988, Jimmy Rollins in 2007, and Mookie Betts in 2018) won the MVP award. Those 27 players finished 9.7, on average, in MVP voting. Similarly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. likely wouldn’t have won the MVP last season, even if he had captured the Triple Crown.
- Making the Playoffs: Eleven of the past 46 MVP winners (24%) failed to make the postseason. Perhaps more importantly, none of the three finalists in either league made the postseason in 2022, the most dramatic shift in the history of MVP voting. While five of the six MVP finalists made the playoffs in 2023, it’s become almost irrelevant to discussing which player is having the best season.
- Teammates Competing for Votes: Since 2000, the closest teammate in MVP voting, relative to the actual MVP winners, ranked around 10th, on average. One pair of teammates finished one-two (Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds, 2001). Four additional pairs finished in the top three of the voting, including Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in 2022. Four MVP winners finished with multiple teammates in the Top 10. Similarly, there are four instances where multiple teammates finished in the Top 10 without winning the award.
Here are my projected WAR leaders in each league for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel: