Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has evaluated the available NHL points props across our best sports betting apps to share his picks based on the latest NHL odds.
This is the perfect time to look at the available NHL points props.
The regular season is right around the corner, and I expect this market to tighten up over the next week. There already weren't many edges to be found in the NHL odds across our best sports betting sites.
Here are our top NHL picks for the points-prop market from our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
NHL points props 2023-24: Picks
(Odds and picks as of Oct. 3)
- Connor Bedard Over 67.5 points (-115 via bet365) ???
- Johnny Gaudreau Over 83.0 points (-115 via Caesars) ???
- Anze Kopitar Over 65.0 points (-115 via Caesars) ???
- Tyler Bertuzzi Over 50.5 points (-140 via bet365) ??
- Aleksander Barkov Under 86.5 points (-115 via Caesars) ??
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NHL points props 2023-24: Handicap breakdown
Here's a quick breakdown of my handicapping process:
- Create custom projection s for player points totals
- Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
- Convert the probability to odds
- Compare my odd with the numbers across our best sportsbooks
| Player | Line | My projection | My price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard | Over 67.5 points (-115 via bet365) | 72.9 | -151 | 12% |
| Johnny Gaudreau | Over 83.0 points (-115 via Caesars) | 88.2 | -144 | 10% |
| Anze Kopitar | Over 65.0 points (-115 via Caesars) | 69.8 | -142 | 10% |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | Over 50.5 points (-140 via bet365) | 58.1 | -175 | 9% |
| Aleksander Barkov | Under 86.5 points (-115 via Caesars) | 82.5 | -136 | 8% |
NHL points props 2023-24: Picks
The Calder Trophy favorite isn't being given enough respect here, as I have him conservatively protected for 72.9 points in his rookie year. Bedard is going to skate in a top offensive role in all situations, and he's already showing off elite offensive gifts during preseason competition.
Additionally, I also value that DraftKings and BetMGM have Bedard's points total set at 69.5.
Year 1 in Columbus wasn't a roaring success for Gaudreau. He dipped from a career-high 115 points during the 2021-22 campaign to just 74 last year.
And, there were two big factors in the decline.
Gaudreau's shooting percentage fell to 9.6%, which led to just 0.81 goals per 60 minutes, and he registered only 2.05 assists per 60. He respectively posted 15.3%, 1.58, and 2.95 marks during his career-best showing with the Calgary Flames the year prior.
I'm projecting Gaudreau's numbers to settle in the middle and have him pegged to finish with 88.2 points.
The veteran center has cleared this total in consecutive seasons, and I have him projected for 69.8 points.
There's definitely negative regression ahead of Kopitar's career-high 16.6% shooting percentage in 2022-23, but I'm anticipating an uptick in assists to mitigate a decline in goals.
Additionally, I'm viewing the 2023-24 Los Angeles Kings as the best edition since LA was a perennial Stanley Cup contender a decade ago.
There's a huge gap between the 50.5 total via bet365 and my projection of 58.1 points for Bertuzzi. However, the -140 vig definitely cuts into the value, and I also wouldn't be surprised to see the number climb closer to my projection before the regular season starts.
Bertuzzi has been skating with superstars Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the No. 1 line for the Toronto Maple Leafs during training camp and preseason play, and it's proven to be a cushy gig for piling up points.
There's also enough scoring depth throughout the Toronto lineup for Bertuzzi to still be productive if he's not primarily skating with Matthews and Marner for stretches. After all, he'll benefit from softer on-ice matchups playing lower in the lineup.
While Barkov has flashed as an elite offensive producer and point-per-game player, he also consistently misses time and played just 135 of a possible 164 games the past two seasons.
Obviously, the injury risk is built into my projection of 82.5 points for the Florida Panthers captain, but I'm still also well short of the available 86.5 total from Caesars.
NHL betting odds pages
| Stanley Cup Odds | Calder Trophy Odds | NHL Draft Odds |
| Conn Smythe Trophy Odds | Norris Trophy Odds | |
| Hart Trophy Odds | Jack Adams Award Odds | |
| Vezina Trophy Odds | Rocket Richard Odds |
Here are our best NHL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)