The hard-luck Tampa Bay Lightning and injury-riddled Winnipeg Jets are respectively facing elimination as road underdogs against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. Add the pivotal Game 5 bout between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils with the series lead on the line and it's another must-watch night on the ice. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker offers his top NHL picks based on the odds from our best NHL betting sites.
A pair of comeback wins has Toronto positioned to be the first team to advance to Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Vegas can follow with a home-ice win in the evening nightcap.
Even with both series leaders also listed as chalky favorites, we only need to look back to Wednesday's action for a reminder that winning the fourth game is no easy task.
Devils roo kie netminder Akira Schmid has flipped the script by turning away 57 of 59 shots across consecutive victories after the Rangers filled the net with two straight 5-1 wins to start the series.
Here are our best NHL picks (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's NHL schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (+135) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-155)
- New York Rangers (+100) vs. New Jersey Devils (-120)
- Winnipeg Jets (+160) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-190)
Thursday's NHL best bets
- Player prop: Timo Meier Over 3.5 shots (-114 via FanDuel) ????
- Regulation win: Golden Knights (-110 via DraftKings) ??
Not intended for use in MA
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Thursday's NHL player prop picks
It's been a frustrating start to the postseason for Meier.
He's failed to mark the scoresheet through the first four games of the series despite leading the Devils in individual expected goals and being on the ice for the most high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five.
While I'm expecting him to end the point drought in Game 5, this shots prop offers better value than the Over 0.5 points prices across our best sportsbooks.
Meier's 27.9 attempts per 60 minutes pace the postseason, but he's only registered 15 shots. A slight improvement in his shooting efficiency is all it will take to soar over this total, and he's cleared 3.5 shots in two of the four games of the series already.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -115 | -114 ?? | -115 | N/A | -125 ?? |
There isn't a huge edge in the available odds, so here's a peek at a few pivots, with the best price, if you want to invest in the statistical correction ahead for Meier:
- Anytime goal scorer: +180 via FanDuel
- Over 0.5 points: -135 via Caesars
- Over 0.5 assists: +210 via Caesars
- Over 0.5 power-play points: +400 via BetMGM
Thursday's NHL game picks
Vegas has battened down the hatches and allowed a piddling three goals – 5.9 expected – at five-on-five across the past three games to catapult up to a 3-1 series lead over Winnipeg.
The goal-starved Jets also head to the desert without their two best skaters on Thursday, and goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has surrendered 13 tallies with a shaky .888 save percentage during the three game losing skid.
I'm expecting a better game from Hellebuyck, but Winnipeg is now too short on star power and depth to go head-to-head with Vegas for 60 minutes.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -110 ?? | -125 | -115 | -130 ?? | -121 |
The difference in prices across our best NHL betting sites is sneaky. My preference is to always steer clear of taxing vigs, and the -110 odds represent a positive expected value of 8% and an added profit of $1.40 on a winning $10 dollar ticket compared to the -130 price via Caesars.
NHL best bets made 4/27/2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Here are our best NHL betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)