The Carolina Hurricanes can be the first team to punch a ticket to Round 3 with a win over the New Jersey Devils, and the Seattle Kraken visit the Dallas Stars with their series deadlocked at 2-2. It's just business as usual in the NHL playoffs, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker shares his top picks and predictions for Thursday's games based on the NHL odds across our best live betting sites.
Carolina has New Jersey on the brink of elimination, and the Hurricanes have a tidy 4-1 record on home ice during the postseason.
The Devils were also down 3-1 to the New York Rangers in Round 1, though, so Thursday's contest might also just be another starting point for the comeback kids in red.
Bookmakers aren't giving the Kraken much credit following their Game 4 loss. The Stars are a chalky home-ice favorite to win Game 5 and advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Here are our NHL player props and best bets for Thursday (odds via DraftKings and BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Stanley Cup odds.
Thursday's NHL schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- New Jersey Devils (+105) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-125)
- Seattle Kraken (+160) vs. Dallas Stars (-190)
Thursday's NHL best bets
- Player prop: Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 shots (-110 via BetMGM) ???
- Regulation win: Stars (-120 via DraftKings) ??
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Thursday's NHL player prop picks
There's odd puck luck, and then there's Aho turning his 15 attempts into just three shots through the first four games of Round 2.
Overall, his shot volume is down from 15.47 attempts and 8.95 shots per 60 minutes during the regular season, but his 13.44 and 2.69 marks during this series showcase he's just not hitting the net.
For comparison, Aho's Round 1 metrics were 13.62 and 7.31, and he recorded three or more shots in five of six games.
The other huge difference is that there hasn't been a close contest between the Hurricanes and Devils, and Aho's ice time is way down to just 16:44 per game and way below his regular-season (19:30) and Round 1 (18:57) averages.
He'll have more than enough opportunities to imp rove his unsustainably poor shooting efficiency Thursday, and especially if Game 5 is competitive.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | N/A | -110 | N/A | -120 ?? |
It's telling that Aho's shot prop isn't available at multiple sportsbooks. Furthermore, I value the -110 odds through DraftKings and BetMGM because Pinnacle is hanging the Over 2.5 shots at -121, and I'd play the Over to -120.
The difference in the -110 price and -120 odds checks out at a positive expected value of 4%, and if we landed a larger edge I'd grade this as a four-star bet.
Check out our Conn Smythe odds.
Thursday's NHL game picks
I'm expecting a rebound performance from Dallas No. 1 goalie Jake Oettinger on Thursday. He's posted a .924 save percentage on home ice through five playoff starts, and the Kraken also sport an unsustainably-high 14.1 team shooting percentage at five-on-five through the first four games of the series.
It's just the opposite in the Seattle crease.
Kraken starter Philipp Grubauer is rounding back into exactly who he's been since joining the Kraken with a .875 save percentage during the series. He's not that vulnerable, but his .891 mark across 94 games the past two regular seasons says he isn't much better, either.
Additionally, Dallas held Seattle to 19 shots during Game 4, and the Stars have also limited the Kraken to just 2.36 expected goals for per 60 minutes at five-on-five during the series – tied for fewest in Round 2.
The biggest difference between the two clubs is tough to quantify. Dallas boasts the perfect blend of proven and young stars, while Seattle has proven to be better than the sum of its parts.
While it's an admirable trait from the Kraken, it's the superstars who ultimately lead the way th is time of year.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -120 ?? | -130 | -128 | -140 ?? | -125 |
I'm expecting a lot of Big D betting support leading into puck drop, so securing the best odds as quickly as possible is advised. Additionally, while I don't love paying a sizable vig on a three-way market, I'd still play the Stars to -130.
The advantage attached to the -120 number compared to the -140 through Caesars is a positive expected value of 7% and an additional $1.19 of profit on a winning $10 bet.
Check out our best live betting sites.
NHL picks made 5/11/2023 at 8 a.m. ET.
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- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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