A quartet of Game 4s are on the Stanley Cup Playoffs docket Monday, and all four series are sitting at 2-1. The Game 4 winner advanced to Round 2 in five of eight matchups last spring, so it's a proven swing game in the best-of-seven sets. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker shares his NHL best bets based on the odds from our best NHL betting sites.
There have been only 31 instances of a team coming back from a 3-1 series deficit in NHL history, so the importance of pulling even with a Game 4 victory is paramount for the New Jersey Devils, Tampa Bay Lightning, Winnipeg Jets, and Seattle Kraken.
The Devils, Jets, and Kraken are underdogs across our best sportsbook, while the Lightning are dogs at plenty of shops and trending toward being a consensus pup.
Injuries also continue to dominate headlines.
Winnipeg will be without No. 1 defenseman Josh Morrissey (lower body) for the remainder of Round 1, and top-six winger Nikolaj Ehlers (upper body) still hasn't been cleared to return to action. Tampa Bay's top center Brayden Point (undisclosed) was injured during Game 3 against the Maple Leafs, and he isn't guaranteed to suit up Monday.
The Colorado Avalanche will also be without winger Valeri Nichushkin (personal) indefinitely, as the Avs' lineup continues to look less and less like last year's Stanley Cup-winning roster.
Expect Monday's action to be playoff hockey at its best with so much at stake in all four games.
Here are our NHL best bets and player props for Monday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's NHL schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- New Jersey Devils (+130) vs. New York Rangers (-150)
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-110)
- Vegas Golden Knights (-115) vs. Winnipeg Jets (-105)
- Colorado Avalanche (-150) vs. Seattle Kraken (+130)
Monday's NHL best bets
- Player prop: Chris Kreider Under 0.5 points (+112 via FanDuel) ??
- Team total: Devils Over 2.5 goals (-118 via FanDuel) ???
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Monday's NHL player prop picks
I'm eyeing statistical correction to Kreider's scorching start to this series. He's scored five goals despite registering just 1.45 individual expected goals, and his 55.6 shooting percentage this series is beyond unsustainably high.
Four of Kreider's five tallies have come with the man advantage, and he hasn't shined at five-on-five with just six shot attempts, a 40.0 Corsi For percentage, and 111.1 PDO – another metric set for steep negative regression.
The Devils are also averaging the most shorthanded time per game during the postseason, so I'm anticipating them attempting to play a more disciplined game Monday. Fewer power-play opportunities will cut into Kreider's potential to mark the scoresheet.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +110 | +112 ?? | +110 | N/A | +110 |
There's only a slight edge to the numbers available via our best sports betting sites. Additionally, while a statistical correction is ahead, it often plays out over a couple of games. That's why I've listed this bet with a two-star grade and not three.
Monday's NHL game picks
New York netminder Igor Shesterkin entered the postseason in peak form, and he has turned away 76 of 80 shots for a .950 save percentage through the first three games of Round 1.
The Devils have scored only one five-on-five goal (0.41 per 60 minutes) with a 1.5 team shooting percentage. New Jersey ranked fifth in five-on-five goals per 60 minutes (2.79) with an 8.7 shooting percentage during the regular season.
It all adds up to the puck luck turning in the Devils' favor in Game 4.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -135 ?? | -118 ?? | -125 | -125 | N/A |
First, it's worth noting PointsBet has the New Jersey goal total set at 3.0 (+120), so that's an option for betters. I'm just more confident in the Over 2.5 goals given how well Shesterkin has played.
For reference, the difference in the -118 number and -135 price is a positive expected value of 6% and an added profit of $1.07 on a winning $10 dollar ticket.
NHL picks made 4/24/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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