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New York Islanders win and game total under 5.5 (+290) vs Carolina Hurricanes
The Islanders have a decent chance to win this series despite being a wildcard team that just barely made the playoffs. Carolina was good down the stretch but not great. New York has had to play playoff-style hockey for months now as they vied with several teams for their wildcard spot. They enter the postseason having won 5 out of their last 8 games. The Hurricanes have struggled a bit with consistency in their past few weeks as they ended the season 6-6-1 in their final 13 games. That is not going to get it done in the playoffs if they don't clean up a few issues leading to that inconsistency. The Islanders are more than just a pesky team. They are playing good hockey at a good time of year and will look to keep the intensity going as they try to upset a division winner.
These teams are very similar in terms of possessing a team strength of goal prevention and a team weakness of goal scoring. With that, this has the makings of a low-scoring series. The combined over-under records of the Islanders and Hurricanes during the regular season were 70-87-7. To replicate this game, Carolina's home over-under record combined with New York's road over-under record was 36-42-4. The total has gone under in 8 of the Hurricanes' last 10 games, as well as in 4 of their last 5 at home. These teams will lean on what makes them successful. For both of them, that means smothering the opponent and minimizing high percentage chances. The under will be a good play.