Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I handicap the NHL each day.
Market Report for Saturday, Oct. 22nd
Recap: Saturday’s loss on the Red Wings marked the fifth time that a team I bet on led by two goals or more and failed to win the game.
Wins: 10 Losses: 11 Units Won: -2.32 units ROI: -11.5 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Today: With injury lists growing and starting goaltenders unknown, Saturday’s games are tougher to handicap on average. There are a couple of teams (one short favorite and one underdog) that are worth betting to win on Saturday.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size.
San Jose Sharks (+ 175) at New Jersey Devils (-200)
This is the first half of a back-to-back for San Jose, who will complete a four-game road trip in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Sharks are a bad hockey team, but the Devils’ odds are inflated. Not so much that there is value on the Sharks, but there is certainly not any value on the Devils at the current price.
Minnesota Wild (-105) at Boston Bruins (-115)
Boston is playing their fourth game in six days, and it’s unclear whether head coach Jim Montgomery will start Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman. On the one hand, Ullmark has been great so far this season. On the other, there’s probably at least a little bit of concern that Swayman could collect rust if he doesn’t play frequently enough. The Bruins will have a couple of days off before they finish up this four-game homestand with games against Dallas and Detroit, and that makes it a little bit tougher to predict which goaltender will start. Either way, though, the Bruins are in much better shape than the Wild so far this season.
Minnesota has been a top defensive team for several years, but they’re among the bottom-10 teams in expected goals against and shots attempts against per 60 minutes. Boston is generating roughly four expected goals per game to start the season, and rank among the top-10 teams in xGF60 and shot attempts. Ideally, Ullmark will start in goal, but my model estimates that the Bruins should be priced no lower than -125 in this game and I'm not going to pass on an opportunity to bet against Marc-Andre Fleury when it's advantageous to do so.
Note: Patrice Bergeron missed practice on Friday, but the team confirmed to reporters that it was a maintenance day. I would have had some reservations about betting on the Bruins if they had said otherwise, but that statement is a good indication that the captain will play on Saturday.
Bet: Boston Bruins -125 Stake: 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Arizona Coyotes (+ 210) at Ottawa Senators (-240)
Is Ottawa good enough to be listed at -240 against the Arizona Coyotes on Saturday? Yes. The Senators are good enough to carry this kind of price tag into a home game against the team many consider to be the worst in the league. Is Ottawa good enough to bet -240 on them to beat the Coyotes? No.
St. Louis Blues (+ 135) at Edmonton Oilers (-155)