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Market Report for Saturday, Oct. 15th
Recap: Montreal kept it close but couldn’t find the back of the net thanks to an amazing performance by new Red Wings’ goaltender Ville Husso. Luckily, both big favorites (Carolina and Tampa Bay) won their games.
Today: Let’s start with one of the two early games (a 2:00 p.m. ET start in Philadelphia) because there’s a good bet to be made. Check back in a little while for a breakdown of the rest of Saturday’s huge card.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake.
Vancouver Canucks (-125) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 105)
Vancouver lost their season opener in Edmonton earlier this week, but the team continues to look solid under head coach Bruce Boudreau. The Flyers put up four goals in their win over the Devils, but on Thursday, but unlike Devils’ goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood, Canucks’ goaltender Thatcher Demko isn’t likely to let in any soft ones. It’s egregious to price the Canucks, one of the top offensive teams in the league since the middle of last season, in the same way as the Devils, but that’s what the market has done heading into this game.
My model prices the Canucks around -150, and therefore, there’s a lot of value in betting -125. The Flyers are still without Cam Atkinson and Sean Couturier, not to mention, they were one of the worst offensive teams in the league last season, so I think this is a good bet even if Spencer Martin starts for some reason. I would still make this bet at -130, -135 and -140, but it's obviously a good idea to shop around because, as the price gets worse, the bet gets smaller.
Bet: Vancouver Canucks -125 Stake: 2 units to win 1.6 units