Welcome to the second season. Just like every other aspect of NFL betting, the playoffs offer their own set of unique challenges, the most important being market efficiency. The NFL is the most bet market in all of sports gambling, therefore sportsbooks pay the most attention to it, and it's widely regarded as the most efficient market. So after 18 weeks of data collection, the lines are as sharp as ever.
Does that mean there isn't value to be found? Of course not. But it just means it's harder to find said value, especially when betting sides and totals.
Regardless of the difficulty level, it's my job to help guide you through the madness. Thankfully I have help as our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Superbook also offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.
Check out all of our NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend
Is the Trend Your Friend?
We play this game a lot on “Let's Bet It”, and I think it’s a fun exercise to try and assign value to some of the popular trends floating around this week. Below are 3 of the trendiest trends for Wild Card weekend and how I assign value to each.
Since 2004 home dogs of less than a field goal are 4-1-1 against the number on Wild Card Weekend, while home dogs of a field goal or more are just 4-7-1 ATS. This trend paints a picture of bad teams who find their way into the postseason via a weak division not faring well against the top Wild Card teams from other divisions.
It's a relatively small sample, so I don't think it holds any standalone betting value for this weekend. However, there are two small home underdogs that we will add to this dataset for next season, with the Bucs and Jaguars currently catching less than a field goal at the time of publication.
I hear this phrase a lot these days. I'm sure I've also used it plenty of times throughout my years of doing shows, but I usually cringe afterward because I think it's a lazy cliche unless immediately backed up with an exact number of points that aren't “too many”.
The phrase holds even less value this weekend, where historically outright Wild Card winners cover the spread at a higher rate than any other round in the NFL postseason.
Since 2004 there have been 80 games played during the Wild Card round, 10 underdogs have covered but failed to win, and 13 favorites have won but failed to cover. That means in 57 of the 80 games played (71.25%) the team that has won outright has also covered the spread.
Don't be afraid to lay the chalk this weekend, and also don't be afraid to bet your underdogs on the ML.
Of all the trends you read about this week, I hold this one in pretty high regard and credit our pal ClevTA for bringing it to my attention. Since 2002 first-time playoff QBs facing off against non-first-time QBs are just 14-35-1 ATS (28.5%), including 0-3 last year with Kyler Murray (34-11 vs Rams), Mac Jones (47-17 at Bills), and Jalen Hurts (31-15 at Bucs) all going down in spectacular fashion.
I've talked about this every playoffs the last few yrs. Its that time yet again to remind folks:
First-time playoff QBs v non-first time QB are 16-34 SU and 14-35-1 ATS (28.5%) since 2002. 0-3 SU & ATS last year (Kyler, Mac, Hurts). This yr Jones, Skylar(?), Huntley (?) could fit— Clevta (@Clevta) January 10, 2023
Obviously, not all first-time playoff QBs are created equal. For example, I think very differently about Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert than I do Skylar Thompson and potentially Tyler Huntley. For one, Lawrence and Herbert are facing each other, so those don't apply. Meanwhile, Huntley and Thompson are vastly outclassed as backups. You also have veteran Geno Smith and rookie Brock Purdy squaring off in another game that doesn't fit the trend.
But there is one game that could be a perfect match with playoff debutant Daniel Jones facing veteran Kirk Cousins, who is 1-2 SU and ATS in his playoff career. I'll dive deeper into this game later in the article, but the one wild card to keep in mind with the Jones/Cousins matchup is who is on the sidelines. Both Brian Daboll and Kevin O'Connell will also be making their playoff debuts, and I would give the edge to Daboll in terms of adjustments and overall coaching quality. In fact, I would give Daboll the Coach of the Year award if I had a vote.
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Wild Card market update: What key factors are impacting line movement?
The last time a team from the NFC West tried to beat their division rival for the 3rd time in the same season, the 49ers dropped the ball in the NFC Championship last year as the Rams advanced to and eventually won the Super Bowl. Do I think the Seahawks will have the same path this postseason? No. But it's fair to be hesitant about laying double-digits with a rookie QB making his first postseason start.
“Agreed, looking like a potential weather game with some rain and wind,” added Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “We’ve taken some respected money on both sides of double-digits; Seahawks +10.5 and 49ers -9.5. Not surprisingly, more public action with straight bets and parlays on SF so far.”
This is a terrible matchup for the Seahawks defensively, a unit that has trended down all season. If you remove the Week 17 cupcake against the Jets offense and Mike White's fractured ribs, the Seahawks are ranked just 30th in total DVOA since Week 10 and 29th against the run. Seattle is also 27th in DVOA vs TEs this season and struggled mightily to defend Travis Kelce and George Kittle in recent matchups. I can see Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey all having big games, and Seahawks DC Clint Hurtt will have his hands full.
The one weak link for San Francisco is their secondary, where they have been the thinnest this season, especially at CB. The Niners are ranked 27th in pass DVOA over the last 3 weeks, including a 34-point outburst from Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders.
I'm fine with teasing San Francisco down from 8.5 to 2.5 if this line ever does get back down to that level. I'm also okay with paying a little extra for a 7-point teaser to move it from the current number of 9.5 through both keys down to 2.5. But from a betting perspective. that's probably the only angle I like in this game.
Check out our Seahawks vs 49ers predictions
Brandon Staley took a unique approach to a meaningless game against the Broncos last week, playing most of his starters well into the 2nd half, and even getting one of them injured in the process. WR Mike Williams has been ruled out for Saturday’s game because of a back injury he sustained in a game where the Chargers had already locked up the highest seed possible and knew their playoff fate.
“We were in the risk room in disbelief that the starters played as long as they did,” added Degnon. “I still lean LAC here, but I don’t think it’ll go down to -1 again. Some sharp money at -1 but we did see some smaller buy back on JAX at +2.5 also.”
Our pal ClevTA gave out the Chargers as a 3-star bet on Picksiwse this week, so he obviously has a stronger opinion on it than I do. I'll admit I was very neutral on this game early on in my research as I saw a lot of volatility with 2 starting QBs making their playoff debuts and Staley being a total wild card on the sidelines with his aggressive nature.