NFL Wild Card best bets
Welcome to Wild Card weekend of the 2022 NFL playoffs.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
Saturday's games
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 42.5)
Adam Burke: The Seahawks and 49ers played twice during the regular season. Both games comfortably stayed under the total, and San Francisco won both fairly easily. A big reason why the 49ers controlled both games is that they outscored Seattle 34-3 in the first half, and I wouldn’t expect anything different here in the playoff game.
DraftKings is the only spot where you can find a -5.5 for the first half, but I think -6 is fine and even -6.5 is okay, but shop around as always. Seattle’s first-half possessions against San Francisco this season have been Punt, Punt, INT, INT, End of Half, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, FG, Fumble, Punt.
On those 12 drives, the Seahawks gained 242 yards on 61 plays, so an average of just 3.97 yards per play. One of them was a 17-yard dump-off on the possession that ended the first half. If we look specifically at the rematch in Seattle in Week 15, the Seahawks had 86 yards on seven drives. Nobody matches up well with the 49ers, but the Seahawks definitely don’t, and San Francisco should be able to play from in front.
Pick: 49ers -6 1st Half
Danny Burke: Geno Smith has regressed back to the Geno Smith we had been accustomed to leading into this season. Smith has seven interceptions in the last seven games, has not had a completion percentage of over 62% in the last three games, nor has he eclipsed 215 passing yards in the prior three games. Are we supposed to expect he just figures it out against the #1 ranked defense (according to DVOA) and in a choppy weather condition-led game? No chance. San Francisco will find a way to survive the wind, and that’s by handing it off to their greatest acquisition this season—Christian McCaffrey. CMC will thrive against this Seattle run defense that ranks 25th, according to DVOA. But, because the weather may play a factor, and it’s a rookie in a playoff game, I want to add a little bit of cushion. I will be teasing down the 49ers.
Pick: 7pt Teaser: SF (-2.5) / CIN (-2.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Adam Burke: We’ve got a playoff Wong Teaser this week with a couple of underdogs that we can take up through 3 and 7 with totals in the mid-to-upper 40s. Personally, I think both underdogs win outright, but teasing up the Jaguars and Buccaneers makes a lot of sense.
Let’s start with the Jags, who have been a really good team per the advanced metrics most of the season. Doug Pederson is a solid head coach, and he’s been a big reason why Trevor Lawrence looks like an above-average quarterback this season. The Jaguars also took off on offense when Travis Etienne replaced James Robinson as the feature back.
Dating back to Week 12, the Jaguars are 10th in EPA/play on offense and the Chargers are 12th. In terms of defensive EPA/play, Jacksonville is sixth and the Chargers are fifth. Since Los Angeles got healthier, things have definitely improved. Jacksonville was consistently solid throughout the season, but the wins started to come in the back half of the year. Neither team has really beaten a whole lot of good opponents, though the Jags do have better wins with dubs over the Chargers, Ravens and Cowboys. The Chargers have only beaten one playoff team (Miami).
With two pretty even teams, going north of a touchdown with a home dog seems like a pretty good idea. Lawrence has a 15/2 TD/INT ratio in his last nine starts, so I don’t see a lot of mistakes that would turn this into a blowout.
Pick: Jaguars +8.5 / Buccaneers +8.5 teaser
Dave Tuley: After losing their season-opener to the Commanders and then shutting out the Colts 24-0 in Week 2, the Jaguars’ 38-10 rout of the Chargers in Week 3 is where they really showed that this wasn’t the same ole Jags.The Chargers are still more of a public team, but that’s really the only reason why they’re a road favorite here. The Jaguars average more points per game (23.8 to 23.0) and allow fewer points per game (20.6 to 22.6), so I’m really tempted to say the wrong team is favored.
However, we think the better way to play this is to tease Jacksonville through the key numbers of 3 and 7 in 2-team, 6-point teasers. This is a good time to list the other advantage teasers (aka “Wong teasers” for old-timers) in the wild-card round, though we lost the Bengals -1 vs. Ravens option as that line has steamed from -7 to -9.5 and even -10 at some books after Lamar Jackson was declared OUT.
Adam Burke has already given out the Buccaneers +8.5 (and we’re betting that as well), but I’ll add the Jaguars +8.5/Giants +9 as the Vikings actually have a -3 point differential despite their 13-4 record and tend to play one-score games.
Pick: Jaguars +8.5/Giants +9 teaser
Danny Burke: This game has the feel of an ‘I don’t know what the outcome is going to be, I just know there will be shenanigans.’ And, more often than not, shenanigans lead to points. But, in all seriousness, on a statistical basis, this game should feature a lot of scoring. According to DVOA, Jacksonville comes into this matchup having featured the 31st-ranked red zone defense, and an overall pass defense that ranks 30th. The Chargers will look to expose those weaknesses with their top-tier quarterback Justin Herbert, and most likely will be able to do it successfully with or without one of their star receivers in Mike Williams.
As for the other side, well, what Los Angeles has had issues with all season is stopping the run. Brandon Staley’s defense ended the regular season allowing the most yards per carry to opposing running backs (5.4). That will allow the Jags to get Travis Etienne established early, and open up the door for plenty of play-action opportunities for Trevor Lawrence and company. I think this will be a rollercoaster of a game with many chances to put points on the board. I snagged this bet early Monday morning but wouldn’t look to play it any higher than 47.5.
Pick: Total OVER 46.5 (-118)
Sunday's games
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13, 43.5)
Dave Tuley: We gave this out Sunday night on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” at Dolphins +11. As it was bet down to Bills -9, we were hoping that was an indication that Tua Tagovailoa would clear concussion protocol and be able to play. However, it was announced Wednesday that he’s OUT and Teddy Bridgewater is doubtful, leaving us with Skylar Thompson.