Wild Card weekend is here and we have a showdown between a pair of overachieving NFC teams in store for Sunday, with the New York Giants taking on the Minnesota Vikings.
With kickoff set for 4:30 pm ET on FOX, it's time to take a look at my Same Game Parlay for this matchup, which pays out at over 8/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Be sure not to miss any of our NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend — we finished the regular season 150-115-7 on sides for +35.6 units of profit!
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-105)
The Vikings have been a truly interesting case study this fall, winning 13 times by a combined 86 points and losing 4 times by a combined 89 points in return. Minnesota has consistently done just enough, going 11-0 in 1-score games this season. That’s why it’s hard for me to back Daniel Jones in his first career playoff game on the road in what's historically been a difficult place to play. This is a trend that is historically profitable and I expect that to continue in this spot. In fact, since 2002 first time playoff QBs against non-first time QBs are 16-34 straight up and 14-35-1 against the spread (28.5%), including an 0-3 SU & ATS record last year.
While the narrative surrounding Kirk Cousins is notoriously low, and his numbers against the blitz are average at best, he should still see success against a banged-up Giants defense. Cousins also has the 2nd-most big-time throws when under pressure this season and a relatively low turnover-worthy play rate, so I see Minnesota generating explosive plays throughout this contest. Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockensen went off in the last matchup with a combined 25 receptions, 242 yards and 3 touchdowns and the Giants have a bottom-10 DVOA against opponent’s #1 receivers and are bottom-5 against tight ends, so I expect both players’ success to continue. This one just feels like another Vikings win by 4-7 points.