In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing on Wednesday – I'm most likely to enter into the'$1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the'BettingPros App'and'BettingPros Discord.
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.72 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 53-44-1 (+4.71 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
Freedman's Week 9 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 9 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| HOU | PHI | 14 | 12.5 | -1.5 |
| ATL | LAC | 3.5 | 3.25 | -0.25 |
| DET | GB | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| CHI | MIA | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| CIN | CAR | -7.5 | -9.25 | -1.75 |
| JAX | LV | 1.5 | 1.25 | -0.25 |
| NE | IND | -5.5 | -5.25 | 0.25 |
| NYJ | BUF | 12.5 | 12.25 | -0.25 |
| WAS | MIN | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 |
| ARI | SEA | -2 | -1 | 1 |
| TB | LAR | -3 | -3.25 | -0.25 |
| KC | TEN | -12.5 | -11.5 | 1 |
| NO | BAL | 2.5 | -0.25 | -2.75 |
Based on my current spread projections, I'm willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Bengals -7.5 vs. Panthers
- Seahawks +2 at Cardinals
- Saints +2.5 vs. Ravens
Freedman's Week 9 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Paycor Superdome
- TV: FOX
Panthers at Bengals: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Bengals -7.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Bengals -340, Panthers +275
Panthers at Bengals: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Bengals – 48% bets, 63% money
- Over/Under: Under – 33% bets, 64% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 26% bets, 87% money
Panthers at Bengals: Injuries
Panthers: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Juston Burris | SAF | Concussion | DNP |
| Donte Jackson | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Stephen Sullivan | TE | Illness | DNP |
| D’Onta Foreman | RB | Rest | DNP |
| Amare Barno | DE | Knee | LP |
| Jaycee Horn | CB | Ankle | LP |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | Ankle | LP |
| Frankie Luvu | OLB | Shoulder | LP |
Panthers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | |
| Jeremy Chinn | S | IR |
| Matt Corral | QB | IR |
| Pat Elflein | C/G | IR |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | IR |
| Andre Roberts | WR | IR |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver III | CB | IR |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DR |
| Henry Anderson | DE | NFI |
Panthers Injury News
Bengals: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chidobe Awuzie | CB | Knee | DNP |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | Hip | DNP |
| La’el Collins | OT | NIR – Rest | DNP |
| Tre Flowers | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Mike Hilton | CB | Finger | DNP |
| Josh Tupou | DT | Calf | DNP |
| Eli Apple | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Stanley Morgan | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Sam Hubbard | DE | Finger | FP |
| Samaje Perine | RB | Finger | FP |
Bengals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tycen Anderson | S | IR |
| Ben Brown | C | IR |
| Clark Harris | LS | IR |
| Elijah Holyfield | HB | IR |
| Desmond Noel | G | IR |
| Isaiah Prince | OT | IR |
| DJ Reader | DT | IR |
| Drew Sample | TE | IR |
| Brandon Wilson | S | PUP |
Bengals Injury News
Panthers at Bengals: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Panthers ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-28.1% ROI)
- ML: 2-6 (4.4% ROI)
Bengals ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 5-3 (19.3% ROI)
- ML: 4-4 (-27.6% ROI)
Panthers at Bengals: Notable Trend
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow: 11-4 ATS (39.8% ROI) off loss
Panthers at Bengals: Team Statistics
Panthers Offense vs. Bengals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.104 | 30 | -0.027 | 9 | -21 |
| Total SR | 37.7% | 32 | 43.1% | 10 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -14.7% | 28 | -5.7% | 9 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.165 | 32 | -0.038 | 7 | -25 |
| Dropback SR | 35.2% | 32 | 43.4% | 4 | -28 |
| Pass DVOA | -23.8% | 32 | -4.8% | 7 | -25 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.2% | 22 | 5.7% | 24 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.008 | 9 | -0.011 | 19 | 10 |
| Rush SR | 41.4% | 17 | 42.6% | 18 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | 1.5% | 12 | -6.6% | 15 | 3 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.80 | 8 | 4.56 | 20 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 19 | 5.4 | 10 | -9 |
| Points per Game | 19.8 | 22 | 20.5 | 13 | -9 |
Bengals Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.061 | 8 | -0.006 | 13 | 5 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 10 | 42.1% | 8 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | 0.7% | 17 | 2.7% | 18 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.152 | 5 | 0.084 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 49.5% | 8 | 44.9% | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 13.8% | 14 | 14.8% | 27 | 13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.3% | 28 | 4.7% | 31 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.143 | 27 | -0.137 | 4 | -23 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 23 | 37.9% | 8 | -15 |
| Rush DVOA | -9.7% | 22 | -12.1% | 7 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.39 | 17 | 4.31 | 12 | -5 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 15 | 5.4 | 10 | -5 |
| Points per Game | 23.3 | 12 | 23.3 | 21 | 9 |
Panthers at Bengals: Quarterback Statistics
2022: P.J. Walker
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.9 | 42 |
Career: P.J. Walker
- AY/A: 5.1
- QB Elo per Game: -45.8
2022: Joe Burrow
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.129 | 5 |
| AY/A | 7.9 | 7 |
| QBR | 53.5 | 15 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.5 | 5 |
Career: Joe Burrow
- AY/A: 8.0
- QB Elo per Game: 33.4
Key Matchup: Bengals Pass Offense vs. Panthers Pass Defense
Even with their rebuilt offensive line, the Bengals have been poor running the ball this year, and the Panthers have a top-10 rush defense, so it would be unwise for the Bengals to lean heavily into the ground game.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.143 | 27 | -0.137 | 4 | -23 |
| Rush SR | 0.393 | 23 | 0.379 | 8 | -15 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.097 | 22 | -0.121 | 7 | -15 |
They’re without No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip), but even so they should still opt to attack the Panthers via the air. For the season, the Bengals have been a solidly above-average team in the passing game, where the Panthers defense has been been subpar.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.152 | 5 | 0.084 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 0.495 | 8 | 0.449 | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.138 | 14 | 0.148 | 27 | 13 |
The Bengals won’t be as explosive without Chase, but they still have a strong quartet of pass catchers with WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, TE Hayden Hurst and RB Joe Mixon.
And the Panthers are dealing with injuries in their secondary: CB Donte Jackson (ankle) and S Justin Burris (concussion) both exited Week 8 early, CB Jaycee Horn (ankle, ribs) has been playing through various injuries for weeks, and S Jeremy Chinn (hamstring, IR) is out.
This line was -9.5 last week in the lookahead market, and the early line on Sunday night — before the Bengals played on Monday Night Football — was -8.5.
At -7.5, this line is too low.
Best Line: Bengals -7.5 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Bengals -9.5 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Bengals -9.25
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location:'State Farm Stadium
- TV:'FOX
Seahawks at Cardinals: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Cardinals -2
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Seahawks +110
Seahawks at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Seahawks – 81% bets, 89% money
- Over/Under: Over – 57% bets, 88% money
- Moneyline: Seahawks – 28% bets, 36% money
Seahawks at Cardinals: Injuries
Seahawks: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Marquise Goodwin | WR | Groin | DNP |
| Darrell Taylor | OLB | Groin | DNP |
| Gabe Jackson | G | Hip/knee | LP |
| Penny Hart | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | Hamstring/Ribs | LP |
| DK Metcalf | WR | Knee | LP |
| Austin Blythe | C | Knee | LP |
| Jordyn Brooks | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Ryan Neal | S | Ankle | LP |
| Noah Fant | TE | Hamstring | LP |
Seahawks: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jamal Adams | SS | IR |
| Isaiah Dunn | CB | IR |
| Darryl Johnson | LB | IR |
| Tyler Ott | LS | IR |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | IR |
| Alton Robinson | LB | IR |
| Tyreke Smith | LB | IR |
| Cody Thompson | WR | IR |
| Tre Brown | CB | PUP |
| Ben Burr-Kirven | LB | PUP |
| Jon Rhattigan | LB | PUP |
Seahawks Injury News
Cardinals: Week 8 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Budda Baker | S | Ankle | DNP |
| Max Garcia | G | Shoulder | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP |
| D.J. Humphries | OT | Back | DNP |
| Jonathan Ledbetter | DE | Ribs | DNP |
| Christian Matthew | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| James Conner | RB | Ribs | LP |
| Dennis Gardeck | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Byron Murphy | CB | Back | LP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | LP |
| Cameron Thomas | LB | Back | LP |
| Josh Jones | OT | Knee | FP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Marquise Brown | WR | IR |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Rashard Lawrence | DT | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Justin Pugh | OL | IR |
| Nick Vigil | ILB | IR |
| Jonathan Ward | RB | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR |
| Darrel Williams | RB | IR |
Cardinals Injury News
Seahawks at Cardinals: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Seahawks ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 5-3 (18.9% ROI)
- ML: 5-3 (54.2% ROI)
Cardinals ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-17.5% ROI)
- ML: 4-4 (-4.5% ROI)
Seahawks at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Seahawks Trends
- QB Geno Smith: 24-16-2 ATS (15.4% ROI) for career
- QB Geno Smith: 8-3 ATS (39.8% ROI) for team
- QB Geno Smith: 17-10-2 ATS (20.2% ROI) as underdog
- QB Geno Smith: 6-2 ATS (45.0% ROI) as underdog for team
Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury:'11-17 ATS (16.8% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury:'9-15 ATS (20.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury:'11-5 ATS (31.9% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Seahawks at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Seahawks Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.063 | 7 | 0.029 | 18 | 11 |
| Total SR | 44.9% | 14 | 50.2% | 30 | 16 |
| Total DVOA | 12.1% | 7 | 3.9% | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.122 | 8 | 0.117 | 26 | 18 |
| Dropback SR | 51.5% | 3 | 54.1% | 32 | 29 |
| Pass DVOA | 31.0% | 5 | 11.8% | 23 | 18 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.9% | 27 | 5.4% | 27 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | -0.036 | 20 | -0.130 | 5 | -15 |
| Rush SR | 34.1% | 31 | 43.2% | 21 | -10 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.5% | 13 | -9.4% | 11 | -2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.19 | 26 | 4.45 | 15 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 5 | 5.8 | 24 | 19 |
| Points per Game | 26.3 | 4 | 26.3 | 30 | 26 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.003 | 20 | 0.042 | 21 | 1 |
| Total SR | 43.3% | 22 | 41.5% | 5 | -17 |
| Total DVOA | -11.8% | 26 | -2.6% | 11 | -15 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.004 | 21 | 0.108 | 24 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 44.2% | 25 | 44.5% | 10 | -15 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.6% | 27 | 3.2% | 14 | -13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 13 | 7.9% | 11 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.019 | 14 | -0.055 | 16 | 2 |
| Rush SR | 41.7% | 13 | 37.1% | 6 | -7 |
| Rush DVOA | -10.4% | 23 | -9.5% | 10 | -13 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.05 | 28 | 4.48 | 16 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 29 | 5.7 | 19 | -10 |
| Points per Game | 22.8 | 15 | 24.9 | 25 | 10 |
Seahawks at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Geno Smith
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.152 | 4 |
| AY/A | 8.2 | 5 |
| QBR | 66.6 | 4 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.1 | 13 |
Career: Geno Smith
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -42.8
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.051 | 21 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 30 |
| QBR | 48.3 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.1 | 9 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 64.7
Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
Going back to last season, when he made three spot starts for the injured Russell Wilson, QB Geno Smith has a top-four 8.6 AY/A and 0.137 composite EPA + CPOE among all passers with multiple starts.
The world is Smith's kitchen, and he's cooking. For the season, the Seahawks are top-eight in most pass efficiency metrics, and the Cardinals defense is bottom-10.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.122 | 8 | 0.117 | 26 | 18 |
| Dropback SR | 0.515 | 3 | 0.541 | 32 | 29 |
| Pass DVOA | 0.31 | 5 | 0.118 | 23 | 18 |
It helps that he has a top-10 pass-catching unit anchored by WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who have a massive edge over an outmatched secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SEA | ARI | 27 | 17 |
In Week 1, Smith was the No. 32 quarterback in our power rankings. Now, he’s No. 12 — not far behind Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (No. 9).
Given how well Smith has played this year – and how bad the Cardinals secondary has been – it's hard to see why the Seahawks are underdogs, especially against a divisional opponent they beat 19-9 in Week 6.
This number was +3.5 in the lookahead market, but I still like it at +2.
Best Line: Seahawks +2 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Seahawks +1
- Kickoff:'Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location:'Caesars Superdome
- TV:'ESPN
Ravens at Saints: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Ravens -2.5
- Over/Under: 48
- Moneyline: Ravens -148, Saints +130
Ravens at Saints: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Saints – 53% bets, 53% money
- Over/Under: Under – 76% bets, 96% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 24% bets, 47% money
Ravens at Saints: Injuries
Ravens: Week 8 Injury Report
Since this is a Monday game, the first injury report for it won’t be available until Thursday, after this piece is published.
Here are the Ravens I’m planning to monitor most closely this week.
- TE Mark Andrews (shoulder): Exited Week 8 early
- WR Rashod Bateman (foot): Exited Week 8 early, expected to be out for weeks
- RB Gus Edwards (hamstring): Exited Week 8 early, uncertain to play
- DL Calais Campbell (illness): Missed Week 8
- LB Josh Bynes (quad): Missed Week 8
- G Ben Cleveland (foot): Missed Weeks 5-8
- EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles): Activated from IR
- EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles): Activated from IR
Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Vince Biegel | OLB | IR |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | IR |
| Kyle Fuller | CB | IR |
| Daelin Hayes | OLB | IR |
| Ja’Wuan James | T | IR |
| Charlie Kolar | TE | IR |
| Steven Means | OLB | IR |
| Michael Pierce | NT | IR |
| Josh Ross | ILB | IR |
| Marcus Williams | S | IR |
Ravens Injury News
Saints: Week 8 Injury Report
Again, the first injury report won’t be available until Thursday, after this piece is published.
Here are the Saints I’m planning to monitor most closely.
- WR Michael Thomas (foot): Missed Weeks 4-8
- WR Jarvis Landry (ankle): Missed Weeks 5-8
- CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen): Missed Weeks 6-8
- TE Adam Trautman (ankle): Missed Weeks 7-8
- RB Mark Ingram (knee): Exited Week 8 early, expected to be out for weeks
Saints: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ethan Greenidge | OL | IR |
| Deonte Harty | WR/RS | IR |
| Albert Huggins | DT | IR |
| D’Marco Jackson | LB | IR |
| Smoke Monday | SAF | IR |
| Trevor Penning | OT | IR |
| Bradley Roby | CB | IR |
| P.J. Williams | CB | IR |
| Dylan Soehner | TE | PUP |
Saints Injury News
Ravens at Saints: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Ravens ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 4-4 (-4.9% ROI)
- ML: 5-3 (1.4% ROI)
Saints ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-28.2% ROI)
- ML: 3-5 (-38.9% ROI)
Ravens at Saints: Notable Trends
- QB Andy Dalton:'42-31-2 ATS (13.1% ROI) as underdog
- QB Andy Dalton: 3-2 ATS (14.9% ROI) with Saints
Ravens at Saints: Team Statistics
Ravens Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.077 | 5 | -0.012 | 11 | 6 |
| Total SR | 47.0% | 8 | 42.3% | 9 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 17.5% | 2 | -2.4% | 12 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.072 | 13 | 0.083 | 19 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 48.1% | 12 | 45.8% | 18 | 6 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.6% | 4 | 2.2% | 11 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.3% | 19 | 7.1% | 19 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | 0.084 | 2 | -0.162 | 1 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 45.5% | 6 | 36.6% | 5 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.7% | 3 | -8.8% | 12 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.31 | 21 | 4.53 | 18 | -3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 7 | 5.3 | 9 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 26 | 5 | 25 | 28 | 23 |
Saints Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.023 | 15 | 0.076 | 28 | 13 |
| Total SR | 49.0% | 3 | 47.0% | 27 | 24 |
| Total DVOA | -1.7% | 19 | 2.1% | 17 | -2 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.04 | 17 | 0.109 | 25 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 50.2% | 5 | 48.4% | 25 | 20 |
| Pass DVOA | -0.9% | 23 | 2.3% | 12 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.1% | 10 | 7.8% | 12 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.003 | 8 | 0.001 | 24 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 47.2% | 3 | 43.8% | 22 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | 10.8% | 6 | 1.9% | 25 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.97 | 4 | 4.72 | 21 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 5 | 5.7 | 19 | 14 |
| Points per Game | 24.9 | 8 | 22.9 | 20 | 12 |
Ravens at Saints: Quarterback Statistics