NFL Odds & Picks
Chris Raybon: Atlanta had a nice 6-1 against the spread (ATS) run as an underdog, but I'm not sure this team should be laying a field goal here.
The market is obviously docking the Panthers for starting PJ Walker, but this is not the kind of matchup that tends to give him trouble.
Walker, like most quarterbacks, struggles when under pressure. His rating under pressure this year is just 39.6, which would rank near the bottom of the league if he had enough attempts to qualify. But that's not a major concern against a Falcons defense that generates pressure on a league-low 12.7% of opposing dropbacks.
From a clean pocket, Walker's rating is 114.6, which would rank second in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify. And while most of the attention is on Tampa Bay's offensive struggles in Carolina's 21-3 upset win last week, we shouldn't ignore what Walker did against a Bucs defense that ranks fifth in overall DVOA and sixth against the pass: 16-for-22 (72.7%) for 177 yards (8.0 YPA) with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Panthers +4 | Falcons -4
The Falcons not only don't get pressure, but their ability to cover has now been compromised with starting corners A.J. Terrell (hamstring) and Casey Hayward (IR; shoulder) both set to miss this game. Per PFF, Hayward and Terrell combined to allow a 62.7% completion percentage and 7.97 yards per attempt — the rest of the defense has allowed a 79.5% completion percentage and 8.47 yards per attempt. Even with Terrell and Hayward in coverage on 25% of opposing targets this season, the Falcons still rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA.
We also can't ignore how a Panthers backfield with no Christian McCaffrey — against a Bucs defense that ranks 11th in rushing DVOA — rattled off 176 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries (6.77 yard per carry average). Fresh off a 15-carry, 118-yard game, D'Onta Foreman should be able to eat against a defense ranked 26th in DVOA against the run.
The Panthers’ defense rates better against the run (13th in DVOA) than the pass (22nd), ideal against this Falcons offense, which averages the fourth most rush attempts (33.0) and second fewest pass attempts (21.4). Per Football Outsiders, the Panthers’ run defense ranks sixth in stuff rate (21%) and is tied for 12th in power success rate allowed (63%).
The Panthers should be able to contain not just the Falcons’ backfield, but also Marcus Mariota, who is averaging 7.0 carries and 33.9 yards per game. Carolina's 1.76 yards per carry allowed to opposing quarterbacks is the lowest mark in the NFL. The Panthers allowed just 21 yards on 10 carries to Daniel Jones in Week 2 and 26 yards on 12 carries to Kyler Murray in Week 4.
The market tends to underestimate road ‘dogs in low-totaled games coming off a bad season, such as the Panthers this week.
Per our Action Labs data, road ‘dogs +2.5 to +6.5 with a game total below 50 and coming off a season in which it won six or fewer games are 256-162-12 (63%) in the first 16 weeks of the season since 2006, covering by an average of 2.4 points.
The market tends to underestimate Walker as well.
In four career starts, Walker has been a ‘dog each time. He's 3-1 ATS in those spots with three outright wins, and he's beating the spread by an average of 20.4 points per game:
- Oct. 23, 2022 vs. Tampa Bay: +13.5; won 21-3
- Oct. 16, 2022 at L.A. (Rams): +10; lost 24-10
- Nov. 14, 2021 at Arizona: +7; won 34-10
- Nov. 22, 2020 vs. Detroit: +3; won 20-0
We should get a great effort from this Panthers team that will be confident after beating the Bucs, and is motivated not only because they enter Week 8 a game out of first place in the NFC South, but also because they have rallied behind interim coach Steve Wilks, whom they want to get the full-time gig.