NFL Week 7 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
Week 6 of the NFL season came with a vengeance, as multiple starting quarterbacks around the league got hurt, which makes predicting this week’s slate a little tricky for some teams, especially when guys may play but are banged up. That’s a hard thing to quantify, but is part of the game nonetheless, so I’m going to try to avoid those teams altogether if possible, and find some value in numbers I have faith in for this week’s best bets.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups | Week 7 Hub | Expert NFL Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 48
Without looking at the numbers and just taking this matchup at face value, it feels like a shootout type of game; Patrick Mahomes vs Justin Herbert in a showdown of elite offenses, right? RIGHT? Not according to my T Shoe Index. I only project 43.5 points in this matchup, as the Chiefs’ defense has been stifling this season and ranks No. 2 in my defensive ratings. The surprising unit in this game is the Chiefs’ offense, which ranks only 13th in the NFL in my offensive ratings – which is based on how many points a team would be expected to score against the average NFL team. The Chiefs are only giving up 14.7 points per game, while the Chargers score and allow 25 and 24 points per game, respectively. I like the game under here, but if you’re scared of Andy Reid’s offense, you could also consider the Chargers team total under 21.5.
Pick: Under 48 (Play to 47)