T Shoe Index Team Adjustments After Week 5
There’s generally around a 10-14 point gap between the top team in my ratings and the bottom team; 2023 is shaping up as an anomaly from a power rating perspective, as there is currently a 22 point gap between No. 1 (49ers) and No. 32 (Broncos). Additionally, the top team usually has around a 7.5 (points above average) power rating; this year, there are currently two teams (49ers, Bills) with a double-digit power rating.
As I’ve mentioned before, the thing to keep in mind is that when I talk about rating changes after a given week, it’s not *only* that week’s games that impacted the rating. All of a teams’ prior opponents’ performances continue to affect that team’s power rating. For example: if the Steelers dominate the Ravens in Week 1, and the Ravens proceed to dominate for the next four weeks, that greatly helps the Steelers’ rating.
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T Shoe Index Upgrades
Death, taxes and Christian McCaffrey touchdowns. The San Francisco 49ers, already a very highly-rated team in my ratings, throttled the Dallas Cowboys in week 5 and propelled themselves into the No. 1 spot with a four-point power rating increase. I have them favored in every remaining game by no less than 3.5 points – a November trip to Jacksonville – and favored by double digits in six remaining games. Oddsmakers agree with the TSI assessment of San Francisco, as they are now the favorite at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl at +350. Given the historical parity of the league, I don’t know that this price is long enough for me to consider a bet right now.