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We cashed four of our six NFL player props last week, including all three five-star wagers. Now we're looking ahead to our NFL Week 6 player prop picks and odds.
Sunday's schedule kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET when the New York Jets face the Minnesota Vikings in London. We're targeting an underappreciated back who plays for one of the fastest risers by the Super Bowl odds.
We're also backing an elder star to run wild in Cincinnati, and taking opposing stances on two quarterbacks in conference matchups as part of our NFL Week 5 predictions.
NFL player prop picks for Week 5
NFL odds as of Saturday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Aaron Jones Over 62.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) vs. Jets ?????
- Derrick Henry Over 80.5 rushing yards (-119 via Caesars) at Be ngals ?????
- Gardner Minshew Under 189.5 passing yards (-105 via DraftKings) at Broncos ????
- Jordan Love Over 39.5 yards longest completion (-110 via BetMGM) at Rams ????
NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best player prop bets this week
When the oddsmakers at our best sportsbooks continue to discount one player or team, I love making them pay repeatedly. That's why I'm backing Aaron Jones for the third time in five weeks after he helped us finish 3-for-3 on our five-star bets last week.
I felt like the Minnesota Vikings' new lead back was among the most underappreciated skill-position players entering the season. That's why I wrote about Jones in my NFL awards predic tions and bet on him in Week 1 and Week 4.
He's rewarded that confidence with at least 90 yards rushing in three of his first four starts for Minnesota, and I love his chances of clearing this modest total again in Week 5.
The Jets rank in the top 10 in opponent's EPA per play and success rate. But they sit just outside the bottom 10 in opponent's EPA per rush while ceding the second-lowest pass rate over expected.
In essence, offenses realize the best way to attack New York's defense is to avoid its vaunted secondary and pound the rock. That's what the Vikings have been doing to opponents all season, with Jones as the most significant beneficiary.
With this total trading up to two yards higher elsewhere, I love the Over at 62.5 yards via bet365 with its market-best odds of -110.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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How do you put a reasonable total on someone who has rushed for a combined 350 yards over his last two weeks?
Clearly, our best sports betting apps are struggling to find the answer. Derrick Henry's yardage total is dealing anywhere from 80.5 to 84.5 after he ran for 199 yards last week against the Buffalo Bills.
That followed a 151-yard effort in Week 3 against the Dallas Cowboys, and Henry also ran for 84 yards the week before against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Cincinnati Bengals might field a worse rush defense than any of those teams. They rank 31st in run stop win rate and opponent's rush yards over expectation, and the Bengals have been allowing 114.3 rushing yards per game to opposing backs.
Henry leads the league in rushing yards per game (120) and combined yards over expectation (185), and he's averaging six yards per carry. If he gets a chanc e on Sunday, Henry should run roughshod on his new division rival.
Best odds: -119 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.34%
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While its offense has been a work in progress, the Denver Broncos' defense has been quietly playing like the NFL's best unit through the first four weeks of the season.
The Broncos lead the NFL in EPA/pass play allowed and have given up the third-fewest passing yards per game (169) to opposing quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers finished with 225 yards last week, and he's the only one to even reach 175 yards.
Gardner Minshew finished with just 130 yards last week against the Cleveland Browns, who field the closest defense among his first four opponents to what he'll see on Sunday.
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Jordan Love started slowly last week in his return from injury, which is expected for someone just three weeks removed from a sprained MCL.
But the Green Bay Packers quarterback shredded a highly regarded Vikings defense to the tune of 389 yards and four touchdowns after settling in during that game. He finished with gains of 42 and 36 yards in the second half after connecting on a 70-yard shot in Week 1.
Love isn't afraid to chuck it downfield, and he should get plenty of opportunities against a Los Angeles Rams defense that ranks third-worst in EPA/pass and has allowed the sixth-highest rate of explosive plays through the air (16.7%).
Because the Rams' run defense is also so poor, I don't love betting the Over on Love's volume stats like passing yards, touchdowns, or completions.
I do expect him to connect on at least one pass of 40-plus yards, which he 9;s done in four of his last five starts including the postseason.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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