Breaking: There is a yawning chasm between what we think we know and what is real when it comes to the NFL.
Case in point, Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll, but we'll get there in a second.
First, my weekly reminder that I'm not an NFL analyst, just a fan who's been low-stakes betting and medium-stakes fantasy-ing for over 35 years.
I do, however, depend on actual NFL analysts – both sports betting and fantasy – to help form my weekly opinions. And the amount of breakdowns, tweet threads, podcasts, and everything in-between I read and listen to each week – from legitimate experts on the NFL – is enough to fill a 300-level syllabus. I am not neck-deep in this stuff; I am buried.
My “job,” as it is when it comes to building my fantasy lineups and placing my bets, is to separate the signal from the noise when it comes to these analysts. Sometimes they're in lockstep, sometimes they're not. Sometimes statistical nuggets are meaningful, sometimes they’re not.
And sometimes, everyone is just 100% freaking wrong.
Ladies and gents, Russell Wilson
Russ, analysts. Analysts, Russ.
For the last however many years, fantasy analysts have been screaming from the rafters to “let Russ cook.”'
Well, the Broncos are letting Russ is cook this year. The results have been … less than stellar.
“Let Russ cook!”
Russ cooking so far this season pic.twitter.com/AjuuoN6j5D
— TickPick (@TickPick) September 18, 2022
By the way, an advanced Twitter search shows the “let Russ cook” thing started with a different Russ – Russell Westbrook – and NBA fans can tell you how that experiment worked out for the Thunder. And the Rockets. And the Wizards. And the Lakers. Anyway …
Every analyst alive has spent the last five years or so imploring Pete Carroll to give the keys to the offense to Russell Wilson, instead of playing run-first football. To let Russ create, instead of being inhibited by Carroll.
1. Build Russ a dome
2. Let Russ cook— joe manchin news follower (@zjwhitman) September 22, 2019
Of course, when Wilson was asked to perform, he performed, never finishing below sixth in PFF's rankings from 2018-2020, leading the league in passer rating in 2015, and on and on.
So the Broncos sent a boatload of picks and players to the Seahwaks for Wilson, he was handed to keys to the objectively explosive Broncos skill players, and he has been – to quote Charles Barkley, because why not have a second NBA reference – turrible.
Now: Is it possible Wilson, at age 33, is washed? Sure. It's possible.
But is it also possible that Carroll – whose Seahawks have made the playoffs eight out of the last 10 years and nine out of 12 overall, with a Super Bowl win and a Super Bowl near-miss – was actually using Wilson correctly? (I know, just typing that hurts.) Is it possible that Wilson might have put up gaudier numbers if he was allowed to “cook,” but … isn't also possible the reason Wilson put up such efficient numbers year in and year out is because he was the sous chef to the Seahawks' run game?