NFL Week 4 Picks for All 12 Sunday Afternoon Games

NFL Week 4 Picks

Phillip Kall: At the start of the week, I had no idea which side to turn to in this game. It felt like picking one team was essentially trying to call who would have the ball last.

Then I hopped to the Action App to see how our experts were picking this game. Astonishingly, it was clear 12-0 that the Ravens were the side they liked. The betting agreed, with 80% of the money is on the Ravens to cover.

After checking for what I had been missing, it was the weather. Rarely, impactful early in the year but in Baltimore there is a 90% chance of rain with 10-15 mph winds.

This pushed the game from who can make more plays to which offense will make fewer mistakes? This made the answer clear: Baltimore.

With wet and windy weather, the Ravens have the edge. Baltimore ranks 13th in run block grade, according to Pro Football Focus, while Buffalo is dead last.

Also, bad weather means your mistakes are amplified. I mentioned Buffalo being beaten up and struggling to force those plays last week. The Bills will also likely put the ball in harm’s way more than the Ravens. Jackson’s turnover-worthy play rate is only 2.9% compared to Allen's 5.2% per PFF.

Follow the money and the experts. Trust Baltimore in a weather-stricken game.

Landon Silinsky: We know Washington will come out throwing, but I also expect Dallas will have a pass-centric game plan against the porous Commanders secondary. More pass attempts mean more clock stoppages and more plays.

There is absolutely a chance for some big plays here — on both sides of the ball' — and I like this game to clear the 41.5 total.

Dylan Wilkerson: But they try, and that's what matters.

Matt Ryan has thrown the ball 117 times in the first three weeks of the season for an average of 39 pass attempts a game. The Colts can toss the pigskin around and even if the result of the drive is not what they want, they can at least say they tried.

With Frank Reich on the hot seat, 'he knows that to beat the Titans the Colts will have to throw the ball quickly and often.

Let's just hope Ryan takes his Ibuprofen before the game.

Bet Now at FanDuel: Matt Ryan Over 31.5 Pass Attempts | Bet to 35.5

Blake Krass: I think both of these teams have underrated offenses and have had underrated quarterback play so far this season. The balanced attack that both teams bring will make it difficult for the opposing staff to slow down the opposition.

I’m going with the over here because I think both offenses will be able to move the ball up and down the field and turn those long drives into touchdowns. The strong rushing attacks should be able to exploit the weaknesses of opposing defenses.

I like the current number of 47 or 47.5 because a 28-20 or 27-21 game gets you to the window. However, I would play to 48.5 as I see this being more of a 28-21, or 28-24 type of game. It should be another one-possession game for both of these teams.

Bet Over 47.5 at FanDuel | Play to 48.5

The Great Foosini: Given the total, this game is expected to be incredibly ugly, but I think there is value on the New York Jets. I have this game projected at 2.8 points to the favorite, so I expect the Steelers to win. However, I have Pittsburgh rated slightly lower than the rest of the market.

I like the Jets with Wilson back at the helm. He should bring more explosiveness than we’ve seen so far and will hopefully fulfill his destiny as the next great Jets quarterback.

Pick: Back the Jets at +3.5 at FanDuel | Bet to 3

Anthony Dabbundo: Our Action Network pro projection has this total at 47.5. Given that both offenses are top five in efficiency, the total sitting at 45.5 seems too low. The Eagles did go under their last two games, but that was more a function of blowouts than anything else.

The Jaguars’ defensive backfield showed plenty of flaws against Wentz in Week 1 and will probably get exposed again facing a well protected and healthy quarterback this week.

Even if Jacksonville is down multiple scores, the accuracy of Lawrence and the conservatism of Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is sure to leave plenty of backdoor points available.

This total is a touch low because of the strong under trend across the league and the potential for bad weather in Philly. Given the rain doesn’t look particularly heavy on Sunday and the moderate projected winds are insignificant, this is a contrarian over play for me.

You may want to monitor for more weather news that could drive this total down below the key number of 45. But I’d still play the over at 45.5 barring a major change in the forecast.

Kody Malstrom: I was a lot more confident in the over heading into this game before Swift, St. Brown and Chark were ruled out. Though the total has ticked down, I still like the number but will play it at a much smaller position.

The Lions offense still has enough weapons to do their part while the Seahawks have been a sneaky good offensive unit themselves.

  
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