Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
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Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Mark Ingram II
Odds: +1000 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Vikings have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the league. They have also allowed five touchdowns (62.5%) on eight attempts by opponents in the red zone. The Saints have scored on six of nine (66.7%) attempts to the red zone. Ingram is the most used running back inside the 20 for the Saints. He has three total touches compared to Kamara's one touch. This game will also occur in London, so both teams will have to travel across the pond. Ingram has the most value based on the red zone usage.
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons
David Njoku
Odds: +1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook
David Njoku caught a TD last week against the Steelers, but his teammate, Amari Cooper, hauled in the first one. Cooper had 11 targets, and Njoku had 10. He is being looked at more by Brissett, who has targeted tight ends frequently throughout his career. The Browns use their running backs often in the red zone, but the Falcons have allowed seven passing TDs and only two rushing TDs. They also allowed an early TD last week to Will Dissly of the Seahawks. It may not be surprising if the Browns throw the ball to Njoku early and often.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson
Odds: +1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The total for this game is 51, so the oddsmakers expect some TDs. Buffalo has a lot of weapons that can find pay dirt, and Josh Allen spreads the ball around. Baltimore has a few players with big-play potential; anyone can score first for either side. The most value lies on Baltimore's side, and Jackson is the most likely to find the end zone. Buffalo has given up three rushing touchdowns and has allowed teams to score at an 83.3% rate in the red zone. Jackson leads Baltimore in touches in the red zone with four, and he may have to improvise more against this stellar defense.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard
Odds: +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Commanders are bad against the run and the pass. Cooper Rush is still the quarterback for the Cowboys. For those reasons, Tony Pollard is the best value bet to score first. He has averaged 11.5 yards per carry this season and received ten total targets. The Commanders have allowed 5.4 yards per carry and 12.5 yards per completion. Pollard will receive carries in the run game and targets through the air, so he is the best bet.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson
Odds: +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Lions are fighting an injury bug on offense. D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are both questionable for this game, and some targets might be up for grabs. The Seahawks are not good defensively and have allowed 19 first-quarter points this season. The Lions have allowed none despite allowing the most points overall. On offense, the Lions have scored the most points in the first quarter with 26, so they will strike first. The Seahawks have allowed 12.6 yards per completion this season and have not been good against the run either. The Lions should try and get their big tight end involved early in the absence of their premier players.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Josh Palmer
Odds: +850 via Caesars Sportsbook
In the first quarter this season, the Chargers have allowed just three points, and the Texans have allowed 16 points. The Texans are also the worst team against the run, allowing a league-worst 202.3 yards per game. Lucky for them, the Chargers average 59 rushing yards per game, which is also the worst in the league. Even though they could run more in this game, their pass-happy offense will be on show. Keenan Allen should return from injury, but Josh Palmer is the bet to make. Allen could be on a limited snap count, which helps Palmer's chances. Not to mention, Palmer leads the Chargers in red zone targets.