Our model creates expert lines for every NFL game. We compare the expert lines to current point spreads to identify potential value for every NFL game. You can find the full NFL Betting Picks: Projected Spreads Report here. And here are a few picks and notes for Week 4.
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Vikings vs. Saints
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Vikings | +1.0 | -3.0 | -2.3 | 48% | -9% |
| Saints | -1.0 | +3.0 | +2.3 | 52% | 0% |
Saints (+3.5 at BetMGM) vs. Vikings
The Saints come into this matchup with the Vikings trying to get the offense right. QB Jamies Winston has struggled while nursing a back injury, grading out below Davis Mills and Cooper Rush on PFF through three weeks. However, with RB Alvin Kamara back in the fold, the running game may get some relief after going up against a Tampa front seven and a surprisingly stout Carolina run defense. Minnesota has ranked 31st in run defense DVOA in the early season, making it a matchup the Saints can exploit.
Minnesota will look to counter with a banged up running attack of their own. Against a New Orleans defense that hasn't allowed an opposed quarterback over 215 yards, this could pose a challenge. A lot will be asked of QB Kirk Cousins in a tough matchup 4,000 miles from home, which may have the Vikings leaving London on a sour note.
Browns vs. Falcons
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Browns | -2.5 | -1.0 | -1.9 | 53% | 0% |
| Falcons | +2.5 | +1.0 | +1.9 | 47% | -9% |
Falcons (+1.5 at FanDuel) vs. Browns
The Browns head to Mercedes Benz Stadium to face the Falcons where both te ams are coming off hard-fought wins. The Falcons finally got Kyle Pitts more than two receptions and look for that to continue in week 4.
The Browns have the top rushing attack in the league averaging over 190 yards per game. They easily could be a 3-0 team if not for a defensive collapse in New York against the Jets. Jacoby Brissett has quietly impressed with a 66% completion percentage and just one interception across the first 3 weeks. All signs point to the Browns being the better team, but with the line at just -1.5, something screams otherwise.
The last factor is Myles Garrett. Monitor this injury report closely before placing your final bet.
Bills vs. Ravens
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Bills | -1.o | -3.0 | -2.4 | 48% | -7% |
| Ravens | +1.o | +3.0 | +2.4 | 52% | -1% |
Ravens (+3 at DraftKings) vs. Bills
The Ravens have been a preferred target for the sharps this week, and I'm in full agreement. The Bills are undoubtedly the best team in football at full strength, but they're far from full strength at the moment. Their entire starting secondary has either been ruled out or is questionable, and two defensive linemen are also questionable. That's simply not a good formula for stopping Lamar Jackson, who has looked unstoppable to start the year. He's leading the league in touchdown passes and adjusted net yards per attempt as a passer, and he also leads the league in yards per carry. The Ravens took their foot off the gas in Week 2 vs. the Dolphins, but don't expect them to make the same mistake vs. the Bills. The Ravens have also been outstanding when getting points, going 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as underdogs.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Commanders | +5.o | +3.0 | +3.0 | 50% | -5% |
| Cowboys | -15.o | -3.0 | -3.0 | 50% | -4% |
Cowboys (-3 at DraftKings) vs. Commanders
The Cowboys will look for their third win against the Commanders at home. The Commanders have given up the fifth most points this season while the Cowboys have only scored the third-fewest points. The one place Dallas has been solid is in the rushing attack. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are averaging over 4.4 yards per carry (5.6 for Pollard, 4.4 for Elliott). The Commanders have allowed 5.4 yards per rush attempt to opposing running backs this season. Dallas' combo in the backfield should have a good day running the ball.
On the other side of the ball, Washington should also be able to run if they choose. However, they will have to improve their pass protection to win against the Cowboys, who lead the league with 13 sacks. Washington allowed nine sacks on Wentz last week, which does not bode well for Sunday.
Seahawks vs. Lions
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Seahawks | +1.o | +3.5 | +4.5 | 47% | -10% |
| Lions | -1.o | -3.5 | -4.5 | 53% | +1% |
Lions (-3.5 at Caesars) vs. Seahawks
Detroit has the third-highest implied team total in week 4. Their offense has been lights out this season, scoring the second most points per game and keeping pace with some of the best offensive talent in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are averaging the 5th worst points per game and lost by an average point margin of 8 points. Seattle's defense is nothing notable, allowing the 12th most points, while Detroit's defense has allowed the most points to opposing teams. Still, Geno Smith and the ugly Seattle offense don't stand much of a chance vs. Detroit's high-caliber offense and won't be able to keep up.
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Chargers vs. Texans
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Chargers | -7.5 | -5.5 | -5.8 | 51% | -3% |
| Texans | +7.5 | +5.5 | +5.8 | 49% | -7% |
Chargers (-5.5 at FanDuel) vs. Texans
The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Houston Texans and are presented a necessary opportunity to right the ship following consecutive losses. The Chargers' intent was to win it all this season, but notable injuries coinciding with consecutive losses have suddenly given credence to those skeptical of LA's outlook in 2022.
A road matchup with the lowly Texans certainly represents a fork in the road for the Chargers this year. But, the Chargers' handicaps notwithstanding, Houston should have issues overcoming the talent gap between these teams.
In summation, the Chargers may have their issues but I struggle to concede the Texans are the team to exploit them. This is the definition of a 'get-right' game for Los Angeles, and a ripe opportunity to buy the Chargers at what may be their floor.
Titans vs. Colts
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Titans | +3.0 | +3.5 | +2.9 | 52% | -1% |
| Colts | -3.0 | -3.5 | -2.9 | 48% | -8% |
Colts (-3.5 at DraftKings) vs. Titans
The Colts' win over Kansas City was a necessary fluke. Indianapolis was outplayed in nearly every facet of the game, and were KC to have a healthy place-kicker the Colts would be the definition of disappointment in the NFL through three weeks.
Regardless, a win is a win. And an opportunity for Indy string together consecutive wins versus a division foe could be momentous for their season's outlook.
Tennessee has struggled as well, and one should not interpret their victory over Las Vegas as a sign that they have overcome their own deficiencies. The Titans currently have the sixth-worst defensive EPA / Play in the NFL, and the Colts are surely aware of their opportunity to exploit such a porous unit.
Bears vs. Giants
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Bears | +2.5 | +3.0 | +3.2 | 49% | -6% |
| Giants | -2.5 | -3.0 | -3.2 | 51% | -3% |
The Bears are top-12 in all the key rushing efficiency metrics, and the Giants defense is outside the top 20 and might be without DL Leonard Williams (knee) and EDGE Jihad Ward (knee).
I think the Bears will control the ball with their running attack to keep this game close.
Best Line:'Bears +3.5 (-109,'Bet Rivers)
First Recommended:'Bears +3 (-110)
Personal Projection:'Bears +1.5
Limit:'Bears +3
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Giants (-3) vs. Bears
The battle of two 2-1 teams is not as exciting as their records indicate. The Giants arrive fresh off their loss to a backup QB, after narrow victories over the Titans and Panthers. The Bears have somehow eeked out two wins with Justin Fields completin g 23 passes through three games. Both teams have run the ball effectively on the offensive side, ranking in the top four in terms of total rushing yards. The difference in this game will be the Bears inability to pass the ball and their poor run defense, 31st in rushing yards allowed, against Saquon Barkley.
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Jaguars vs. Eagles
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Jaguars | +6.0 | +6.5 | +6.5 | 50% | -4% |
| Eagles | -6.0 | -6.5 | -6.5 | 50% | -5% |
Eagles (-6.5 at BetMGM) vs. Jaguars
The Eagles are the last remaining undefeated team in the NFC, and the Jaguars are currently leading the AFC South. Both teams have improved tremendously from last season. The Eagles look to be serious contenders for the Super Bowl, and Trevor Lawrence has thrown only one interception this season. The Eagles have the third most rush attempts in the league but have been the deadliest team when passing. They average a league-leading 13.5 yards per completion, so they should have no problem moving the ball.
The Jaguars have been stifling against the run, allowing zero touchdowns and only 3.1 yards per rush attempt. They will have a difficult time this week against the dual-threat Jalen Hurts, who has run for three TDs already this season. He has also thrown for 305.3 yards per game and may throw more if the run game is not working well.
Jets vs. Steelers
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Jets | +3.5 | +3.5 | +4.2 | 48% | -10% |
| Steelers | -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.2 | 52% | 0% |
Steelers (-3.5 at Caesars) vs. Jets
Zach Wilson returns to the field for the first time this year as the Jets head t o Pittsburgh to take on Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers. The Steelers look to turn around their two-game skid but need to accomplish a feat they have yet to ever do: win a game without TJ Watt.
After giving up 171 ground yards to the Browns last week, it's obvious Watt is a mandatory piece in their ground defense, but the Jets don't have the same rushing attack as the Browns. The Jets are ranked 26th in rush yards per game and their offensive line gives up an average of 3 sacks a game.
Watch for the Steelers’ defense to come out with something to prove, and look for Zach Wilson to get pressured early and often, even without Watt.
Cardinals vs. Panthers
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Cardinals | -2.5 | +1.0 | -1.1 | 56% | +8% |
| Panthers | +2.5 | -1.0 | +1.1 | 44% | -17% |
Per usual, Murray will be the difference in this game.
In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2. This line has moved too far in not even a month of action.
If you give me the opportunity to bet on Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury as a road dog (14-3-2 ATS) and against Panthers HC Matt Rhule as a home favorite (1-7 ATS), I'm going to do it. Panthers QB Baker Mayfield ranks No. 32 in the league in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (-0.057, per RBs Don't Matter). He really might be the worst starting quarterback in Week 4. Say what you want about Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, but he's no worse than average – and he's probably a top-10 player at the position. The homefield advantage the Panthers theoretically have in this game isn't enough to outweigh the massive difference between Murray and Mayfield.
Best Line:'Cardinals +2 (-110,'DraftKings)
First Recommended:'Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection:'Cardinals -1.75
Limit:'Pick'Em
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Patriots vs. Packers
| Team | Open | Consensus | Experts | Cover Probability | Expected Value |
| Patriots | +5.0 | +9.5 | +9.4 | 50% | -4% |
| Packers | -5.0 | -9.5 | -9.4 | 50% | -5% |