Each week, I’ll be providing my favorite Sunday parlay, along with my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. Without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.
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- Leg 1: Indianapolis Colts moneyline +215
- Leg 2:'Minnesota Vikings -6
- Leg 3:'Atlanta Falcons moneyline +100
Odds:'+1116
We’re going a little bold with this week’s parlay. The Colts’ +7 were one of my favorite spread bets of the week, and I think they could win this game outright with a big game from Jonathan Taylor. The same goes for Atlanta, who has more talent than the depleted Seahawks. Lastly, I don’t love many favorites this week, but I think we’re getting Minnesota at a discount after their disappointing effort Monday night.
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 at Indianapolis Colts | Total 50.5'
- Leg 1:'Colts +5.5
- Leg 2:'Jonathan Taylor over 83.5 rushing yards
- Leg 3:'Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 touchdown passes
Odds: +629
As I said before, this is a buy-low spot on the Colts in a game I suspect they could win outright. To win, they’ll have to give Jonathan Taylor more than 10 carries like they did last week. The Chiefs rank 6th in rush defense DVOA, but they haven’t really been tested against Arizona and the Chargers. Taylor should feast, and if he does, the Colts should cover. As for Mahomes, he has 17 touchdowns in his career against Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. While the Colts will try to take the air out of the ball, Mahomes has a good chance of getting three touchdowns.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings -6 | Total 52.5'
- Leg 1:'Vikings -6
- Leg 2:'Justin Jefferson over 98.5 receiving yards
- Leg 3: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 70.5 receiving yards
Odds:'+600
This game has the potential to be a shootout, as both teams possess high-powered offenses and mediocre defenses. And mediocre might be putting it lightly regarding Detroit’s defense. Jefferson should be set to explode against a Lions secondary allowing 273.5 passing yards per game. Minnesota’s secondary has actually been slightly worse in that category, and St. Brown should thrive in the slot. This game could play out similarly to Detroit’s Week 1 loss to Philadelphia. And we may have to sweat out this cover as the Lions potentially make a late charge.
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears -2.5 | Total 40
- Leg 1:'Houston +2.5
- Leg 2: Dameon Pierce over 58.5 rushing yards
- Leg 3: David Montgomery over 68.5 rushing yards
Odds:'+598
I think the Texans will continue to be undervalued, as they’ve covered in their first two games against superior opponents. Now they’ll travel to face a similarly untalented Bears team. It won’t be a pretty game to watch, but I’d take the points with a Texans team that’s been more consistently competitive. As for the running back props, both of these teams rank outside the top 25 in rush defense DVOA. With both of these teams being overly conservative, I’d expect both these backs to produce.
Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 at Tennessee Titans | Total 45.5
- Leg 1:'Raiders -1.5
- Leg 2:'Davante Adams over 83.5 receiving yards
- Leg 3:'Treylon Burks over 3.5 receptions
Odds:'+593
The Bills can make any team look bad, but the Titans are far from the team that earned the No. 1 overall seed a year ago. The Raiders will be plenty motivated after last week’s debacle, and I expect Davante Adams to get fed against a lousy Titans secondary that just let Stefon Diggs go off. Meanwhile, Burks has gotten more targets than expected to begin the year and has seven receptions in three games. I suspect Tennessee will be forced into a pass-heavy game script, favoring Burks’ potential in this matchup.