Here are our odds, picks, and predictions for every NFL game on the Week 3 slate.
Claim 1 FREE year of BettingPros Premium access >>
Steelers vs. Browns
Last week, the Jets embarrassed the Browns by recovering an onside kick and completing an unbelievable comeback. They will be looking for redemption against a struggling Pittsburgh offense. This rivalry game will look a little different than years past and will not feature tremendous quarterback play. Jadeveon Clowney is out, but Myles Garrett will play. T.J. Watt will still be on the sideline for Pittsburgh. Garrett will look to add to his three sacks this season against a unit that has allowed four through two games.
On offense, the Browns will look to run the ball, per usual. They have 76 rushing attempts, the second most in the league. Last week, the Steelers’ defense minus Watt allowed 4 yards per carry to the Patriots. Nick Chubb is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and will find lanes against the Steelers’ defense, which allows 128.5 rushing yards per game.
Pick: Browns -4.5, Lean u38.5
Texans vs. Bears
Justin Fields has only thrown the ball 28 times this season, which is by far the fewest in the league. Chicago wants to run the football, and they should be able to at home against Houston. Houston gives up 4.7 yards per rush attempt and 163 yards per game. David Montgomery ran for 122 yards last week at Green Bay, so he will likely have an efficient day.
The Bears are one of two teams worse than the Texans against the run. They have allowed 189.5 yards per game this season. It is a weakness the Texans can exploit if they choose, but they have yet to show a strong rushing attack. Through two games, they average 78.5 rushing yards per game. The team with a better rushing attack will likely win this game since neither team has consistent play from their quarterback.
Pick: Bears -2.5, Lean u40.5
Raiders vs. Titans
Both teams have had little success running the ball, ranking in the bottom third of the league in rush offense DVOA and yards per game. This isn’t much of an issue for the Raiders as QB Derek Carr and the receivers are the offense’s focal point. If the offensive line can keep Carr on his feet and he limits mistakes, they can exploit a Titans’ coverage that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA through two weeks.
For Tennessee, moving the ball on the ground is paramount. If they can’t move the ball against Las Vegas, who limited the Chargers and Cardinals in the run game, they won’t be able to open up the passing game and will struggle to put up points on this Raiders defense. The Titans’ offense is sputtering, and if they can’t find themselves soon, this season could get out of hand.
Pick: Raiders -2, Lean u45.5
Chiefs vs. Colts
Indianapolis is finally home after the offense struggled in two divisional road games. Unfortunately for them, their opponent is the red-hot Chiefs. The Chiefs have moved on from WR Tyreek Hill pretty quickly, producing the 3rd ranked offensive DVOA through two weeks, led by their passing attack. The Colts provide a favorable matchup after allowing effective passing days from QB Davis Mills and QB Trevor Lawrence, clocking the 29th ranked pass defense DVOA. QB Patrick Mahomes and the company will have a field day.
Meanwhile, QB Matt Ryan has not been the upgrade over Carson Wentz that the Colts wanted. He’s been dreadful through two games with one touchdown, four interceptions, and a putrid 31.2 QBR. The Kansas City defense has shut down both opponents’ running attacks, so the Colts are in for a long afternoon if Ryan is forced to make plays with a banged-up receiving corps.
Pick: Lean Chiefs -6.5, u50.5
Bills vs. Dolphins
This matchup features two of the top pass offenses in the league by almost any metric. The Bills have done well so far defending the pass though the results came against a sputtering Tennessee offense and a LA Ram offense that kept turning the ball over. Miami has the weapons to exploit this defense, similar to how the Chiefs did in the Divisional round of the playoffs last year. This game could turn into a track meet quickly.
In week 2, Miami was torched by Lamar Jackson through the air and on the ground but was able to come back when the Ravens’ shaky traditional run game wasn’t able to ice the game away. Josh Allen should be able to have his way in this matchup, but the defense will need critical stops, and the run game will need to step up if the Bills want to leave Miami with a big divisional win.
Pick: Lean Dolphins +6, Lean o52.5
Lions vs. Vikings
Jared Goff and the Lions got their first win of the season against the Commanders. They have 35 points in consecutive games and lead the league with 7.2 rushing yards per attempt. The Vikings allow 5.6 yards per rush attempt, so Detroit should be able to move the ball on the ground. The Vikings should also be able to run the ball since the Lions have allowed 5.1 yards per rush attempt and five rushing TDs this season. Dalvin Cook will probably score his first TD of the season, especially if they find the red zone. The Lions have allowed seven touchdowns on eight red zone attempts. Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions last week, so the Vikings might be more apt to run the ball this week against a poor run defense. The Lions’ offense has been playing better lately, and they get the job done on the road.
Pick: Lean Lions +6, u52.5
Ravens vs. Patriots
The Baltimore Ravens surely will be a popular pick to bounce back following an astonishing fourth-quarter home collapse versus the Miami Dolphins. Be wary of backing Baltimore, however.
New England Patriots HC Bill Belichick owns a 15-4 record ATS as a home underdog. Despite most of these games occurring during the Tom Brady era, the trend has held up with a 3-2 record over the last two seasons.
If the Patriots can limit Baltimore’s explosive plays, there is a path for New England to win this game. However, the offensive disparity in this matchup is glaring, and it is difficult to endorse the Patriots outright to cover the short spread.
Pick: Lean Patriots +3, Lean u43.5
Bengals vs. Jets
The Bengals are off to one of the most disappointing starts in the league. QB Joe Burrow and the offense have yet to get going, but the final scores do not tell the whole story. In matchups with Pittsburgh and Dallas, they were up against the 6th and 8th ranked defenses per DVOA. The week 3 contest with the Jets provides a much more favorable matchup with the dead last ranked defense per DVOA.
The Jets offense has leaned heavily on Joe Flacco, who has led the NFL in pass attempts over the first two weeks. He was capable of getting them back into the game against Cleveland, but so long as this defense is going to keep digging them into holes, Flacco’s heroics won’t be enough.
The Bengals should bounce back here on the road and avenge last year’s loss to the Jets with a comfortable win.
Pick: Bengals -5, u45
Eagles vs. Commanders
The Eagles looked dominant on Monday night and looked to continue that production at the Commanders this week. They run into a 1-1 Commanders team that looks to shake off the high-scoring loss at the Lions last week.
The Commanders have given up the fifth most rushing yards this year at 157 yards per game, while the Eagles have rushed for the second most yards at 190 yards per game. With that said, the Commanders have only allowed two total rushing yards to QBs this season, but Jalen Hurts is a rushing QB that doesn’t compare to Goff and Lawrence.
Look for the Eagles to run the ball early and often. Like last week, we could see the Commanders get down early and turn to Wentz and the receiving corps to put up some late, second-half points.
Pick: Lean Eagles -6.5, o47.5
Saints vs. Panthers
Two 55+ yard field goals have been the difference in the Panther’s 0-2 record, and they look to bounce back as they host the Saints this week. Jameis Winston and the Saints, on the other hand, are a roller coaster. A lackluster offensive performance in week 2 followed a late, heroic win versus the Falcons in week 1-no telling what week 3 could bring.
That said, Carolina has allowed the third least passing yards per game but the fourth most rushing yards per game. With some reports saying Kamara is probably playing in week 3, he could be the deciding factor in the final judgment.
In the end, this game will be decided by takeaways. The Saints have turned it over a league-high six times so far, while the Panthers aren’t too far behind with three. Whoever can hold onto the ball will likely win this game.
Pick: Panthers +3, Lean u40.5
Jaguars vs. Chargers
Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence was one of the best players in the NFL last week. The second-year pro ripped apart the Colts’ cover-three defense, and the Jaguars offense has sneakily been among the best units in the NFL through two weeks.
TheChargers’s defense will be much more difficult for the young offense to navigate, but it is still worth placing a wager on Jacksonville +7.
Additionally, expect this line to shift precipitously on the off-chance that Chargers QB Justin Herbert does not play in this game due to broken rib cartilage.