Beware of NFL Week 3 traps
We have worked our way through two weeks of NFL betting and it’s already been an unusual season. Several teams that looked horrible in Week 1 bounced back in Week 2 and vice versa. There are nine undefeated teams left, with six of them coming from the NFC East and NFC South. Ironically, the latter division was expected to be one of the worst in football, if not the worst.
There are also nine winless teams, including four that were in the playoffs this past January. That’s how quickly things can turn in the NFL. Typically, after two weeks of games, bettors are already forming opinions about all of the teams, and in turn, those setting the odds try to take advantage. Let’s avoid some traps they’ll try to set for you this week.
Regardless of what has happened in the first two weeks, historically, Week 3 has had a penchant for evening the scales, so tread cautiously this weekend, and perhaps have the courage to go “against the grain” in terms of what we’ve seen so far. Bettors who have done so have typically reaped the rewards. It’s also imperative that you understand what has transpired with each of the teams in terms of personnel, as we’ve already seen some major injuries that have affected games and will continue to in the coming weeks.
Let’s look at some NFL handicapping systems that have thrived in recent years, using logic that might not seem all that sensible. Backing these types of angles helps bettors avoid what could be considered “traps.” Here are six concepts you’ll want to consider as you prepare your wagers for this weekend and the games that will be affected.
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1. Teams that start 0-2 SU in the NFL are 23-23 SU but 33-13 ATS (71.7%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
There’s a tidal wave of negativity that gets associated with the winless teams after two weeks, and while they remain typically bad when matched against undefeated teams, they do perform quite well against middle-of-the-road opponents. In most cases, the 1-1 team has shown early signs of inconsistency, and I don’t know of any bettors who are actively looking to bet teams like that. Trust that the desperate 0-2 teams will bring their best effort into this week’s game, motivated by the fear of going 0-3 and what that has historically meant to teams’ playoff chances.
The 0-2 teams in 2023, with their prospective matchups for Week 3 against 1-1 teams are as follows: