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Seven underdogs prevailed last week, only the third time that's occurred in Week 2 in the last nine seasons.
Underdogs improved to 16-14-2 against the spread (ATS) through two weeks, proving parity is king in the NFL.
The Week 3 NFL ATS picks feature the New England Patriots and New York Jets, on which you can do a deeper dive with our Thursday Night Football odds.
We also cover the Detroit Lions, among the Super Bowl odds favorites, and Carolina Panthers in more depth. If you want more expert opinion before locking in your picks, head to our NFL Week 3 predictions.
NFL ATS picks Week 3: Every game
NFL odds via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots vs. Jets (-6.5) | Patriots (+6.5) | ???? |
| Broncos vs. Buccaneers (-7) | Buccaneers (-7) | ???? |
| Giants vs. Browns (-6) | Browns (-6) | ??? |
| Chargers vs. Steelers (-1.5) | Chargers (+1.5) | ???? |
| Texans (-2.5) vs. Vikings | Vikings (+2.5) | ???? |
| Packers vs. Titans (-3) | Packers (+3) | ??? |
| Eagles vs. Saints (-2.5) | Saints (-2.5) | ???? |
| Bears vs. Colts (-1) | Colts (-1) | ???? |
| Panthers vs. Raiders (-5.5) | Panthers (+5.5) | ??? |
| Dolphins vs. Seahawks (-4.5) | Seahawks (-4.5) | ???? |
| 49ers (-7) vs. Rams | Rams (+7) | ???? |
| Lions (-2.5) vs. Cardinals | Lions (-2.5) | ???? |
| Ravens (-1) vs. Cowboys | Ravens (-1) | ??? |
| Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Falcons | Falcons (+3.5) | ??? |
| Jaguars vs. Bills (-5.5) | Bills (-5.5) | ??? |
| Commanders vs. Bengals (-7.5) | Commanders (+7.5) | ??? |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
The New York Jets won only three games by seven or more points last season. While their offense is notably better, the jury's still out on the other side of the ball, which has been Gang Green's pride and joy since I can recall.
Not only are the Jets struggling to stop the run (28th-ranked at PFF), but they also have problematic injuries to deal with.
C.J. Mosely injured his toe in the 24-17 victory over the Tennessee Titans, while linebacker Jermaine Johnson is out for the season after tearing his Achilles.
And let's not forget Haason Reddick would rather lose about $800,000 per game than suit up and play.
The Patriots have surprised some people with their ground-and-pound ability. Jerod Mayo's team has chewed up game time with the seventh-best run attack, according to PFF, and are tied for the fourth-most run yards per game (117.5).
They achieved that average through two games against the ninth-ranked (Seattle Seahawks) and 15th-ranked (Cincinnati Bengals) run stop units.
The -110 odds at bet365 will pay a $9.09 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Our Mike Spector dives deeper into this matchup with his Patriots vs. Jets early picks.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
I can't believe I'm doing this, but I'm backing the Panthers, who are fresh off of benching former No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young.
The Panthers should receive an immediate jolt after their quarterback shakeup. While he's no Tom Brady, Andy Dalton has a wealth of experience and knows how to manage a game.
Anything is better than the Panthers' recent record under Young's stewardship.
In the last 10 games with Young behind center, the Panthers led for 10 seconds. And no, that's not a typo.
Dalton's calming presence should be enough to keep things close against a Las Vegas Raiders team entering Week 3 in a potential letdown spot after upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore.
The Panthers can still cover the spread and An drew Brennan's NFL survivor picks for Week 3 will still be safe.
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Best odds: -118 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.13%
I love this bounce-back spot for the Lions.
The Lions were 7-2 ATS on the road last season and never lost two in a row. The Arizona Cardinals took advantage of a Los Angeles Rams team that was ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball.
While the Cardinals have scored the second-most points per game through two weeks (34.5), they're susceptible defensively. The Cards' six sacks against the Rams feel inflated due to the Rams' depleted offensive line.
L.A. also has the 21st-ranked pass rush, according to PFF. That's music to Jared Goff's ears as the Lions' signal-caller usually feasts when he has time in the pocket.
The -118 odds are shorter than most of our best NFL betting sites, but that's due to the 2.5-point spread offered. Cae sars, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 offer a 3-point spread.
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